Seth Mandel
Commentary, Aug. 6, 2024
“… the elevation of Sinwar isn’t itself unusual, but it wasn’t the plan and it puts all the hats on one man’s head.”
Yahya Sinwar has been named the new head of Hamas’s political division, and congratulations are in order—mostly for Israel, which can see in Sinwar’s promotion the continuing fruits of its methodical dismantlement of Hamas.
There are three reasons for the West to find encouragement in this latest turn of events. First, Hamas’s leadership bench is depleted, and Israel’s careful decapitation of its branches has been effective. Second, Sinwar’s consolidation of power, combined with his geographic isolation, turns Hamas from an organization into a literal death cult. Third, it collapses a comforting lie that the West tells itself about these terror groups, enabling a more honest conversation about how to defeat them.
Sinwar succeeds Ismail Haniyeh, the politburo head who was assassinated in Tehran last week. Haniyeh took the helm of Hamas just as it was about to take over the Gaza Strip from Mahmoud Abbas’s Palestinian Authority, and led it through its Talibanization of Gaza and its consolidation of every form of authority in the strip. Haniyeh became the group’s political director in 2017, handing the operational reins to Sinwar and decamping to Qatar to act as Hamas’s gatekeeper and chief diplomat—essential functions, since Hamas is a proxy of Iran and thus cannot exist in isolation or without benefactors abroad.
Haniyeh’s second-in-command, Saleh al-Arouri, was eliminated in an Israeli strike in Lebanon in January. That post was still vacant when Haniyeh was killed, so there was no automatic succession. As I wrote last week: “One option to replace Haniyeh is former politburo head Khaled Meshaal, but he is on the outs with Iran and regional analysts seem to doubt Sinwar would support him.”
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