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M.E. INSTABILITY GREATER THAN EVER: HAMAS REJECTS CEASEFIRE, SYRIA’S “CW” STOCK REMAINS UNKNOWN, & ISIS DECLARES CALIPHATE

We welcome your comments to this and any other CIJR publication. Please address your response to:  Rob Coles, Publications Chairman, Canadian Institute for Jewish Research, PO Box 175, Station  H, Montreal QC H3G 2K7 – Tel: (514) 486-5544 – Fax:(514) 486-8284; E-mail: rob@isranet.wpsitie.com

 

TWO CHARGED WITH ASSAULT AFTER PALESTINE HOUSE PROTEST TURNED VIOLENT (Toronto) Two people have been charged with assault after this month’s violent protests outside Palestine House in Mississauga, Ont., both allegedly supporters of Palestine House who attacked Jewish Defence League members. JDL president Meir Weinstein said the charges are both related to Palestine House—an organization which the Canadian Government halted funding due to concerns about the program’s support for extremism—members using sticks to allegedly assault people. A partial video of the demonstration shows confrontation between both sides, and someone being hit with a stick carrying the Palestinian flag. Approximately 130 JDL demonstrators were protesting the abduction and slaying of three Israeli teens in the evening of July 3, across the road from Palestine House. Palestine House officials say 200 of their own members came to counter-protest the revenge killing of a Palestinian teen, allegedly by Jewish extremists. Two people protesting with the JDL were arrested but released without charges. (National Post, July 14, 2014)

 

Operation ‘Protective Edge’: ROCKETS FIRED AT TEL AVIV, SOUTHERN ISRAEL; 1 DEAD (Jerusalem) Terrorists in the Gaza Strip launched a fresh barrage of rockets on central and southern Israel Tuesday afternoon, killing an Israeli civilian in his thirties near the Erez Crossing on the border with Gaza. The man was apparently distributing food to soldiers when he was killed by mortar fire. One other person was lightly wounded in the same attack. Hamas later claimed responsibility for the death, insisting the man was an IDF soldier. So far Tuesday, more than 100 rockets have been launched at Israel from Gaza. It comes as the Israeli Air Force launched 30 airstrikes on terrorist targets in Gaza, after Hamas rejected ceasefire efforts and fired a salvo of rockets at Israeli civilian centers. The Israeli military held off from responding for several hours to allow Hamas time to accept the ceasefire. (Arutz Sheva, July 15, 2014)

 

Contents:

 

The Palestinian Blessing: Bret Stephens, Wall Street Journal, July 14, 2014— From time to time Israel and her supporters should give thanks for having as enemies the Palestinians and their supporters.

Sorry!: Daniel Gal, July, 2013— In Israel, Ephraim Kishon is considered one of the most humorous writers among our literati.

Has Syria’s Chemical Weapons Arsenal Truly Been Dismantled?: Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham,  BESA, July 13, 2013— June 30, 2014 was set to be the deadline for the complete elimination of Syria’s chemical weapon (CW) capabilities, with the last portion of the declared arsenal removed from Syria just last week.

What Does an “Islamic Caliphate” in Iraq Mean?: Lt. Col. (ret.) Jonathan D. Halevi, JCPA, July 1, 2013— On the first day of the month of Ramadan (29 June 2014), the day on which World Pride Day was celebrated as a marker of social and cultural progress, the reestablishment of the Islamic caliphate (state) was declared in Iraq and a caliph was appointed to lead it.

 

On Topic Links

 

A Gaza Ceasefire Now Would Be a Strategic Miss: David M. Weinberg, BESA, July 15, 2014

President Obama: Now is the Time: Marvin Hier, Jerusalem Post, July 14, 2014

Demographic Upheaval: How the Syrian War is Reshaping the Region: Pinhas Inbari, JCPA, June 17, 2014

ISIS Is About to Destroy Biblical History in Iraq: Christopher Dickey, Daily Beast, July 7, 2014

 

THE PALESTINIAN BLESSING                                                                      

Bret Stephens                                                                                                      

Wall Street Journal, July 14, 2014

           

From time to time Israel and her supporters should give thanks for having as enemies the Palestinians and their supporters. As of midday Monday, Hamas had fired more than 1,000 missiles at Israel, aimed more or less indiscriminately, without inflicting a single Israeli fatality. It isn't every enemy whose ideological fanaticism, however great, is exceeded by its military and technological incompetence. It's true that much of the incoming fire has been shot down mid-flight by Israel's Iron Dome, but Hamas must have seen that coming since the defense system was first deployed during the last round of fighting in 2012. It's as if the French had concluded from the Battle of Agincourt that the English long bow wasn't as effective as advertised and would surely fail against a more determined cavalry charge.

 

Alongside Hamas in Gaza there is the rump regime of Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank. Mr. Abbas is supposed to be a bystander in this conflict. But he made his sympathies known when, within a day or two of the fighting and with fewer than 50 Palestinian fatalities, he accused Israel of "genocide" and "war against the Palestinian people as a whole." "Shall we recall Auschwitz?" he added. I sometimes wonder whether supporters of the Palestinian cause—at least those capable of intellectual, if not moral, embarrassment—cringe a little at the rhetorical flourish. Bashar Assad, in whose court Palestinian leaders bowed and scraped for a decade before the current uprising, used chemical weapons against the Palestinian refugee town of Yarmouk a year ago and then starved out the remaining residents. More than a quarter-million Palestinians living in Syria for decades have also been made refugees by Mr. Assad's assaults. Yet last month Mr. Abbas congratulated Mr. Assad on his re-election: "Your election to the presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic guarantees Syria's unity and sovereignty," the Palestinian president groveled, "and starts a countdown to the end of Syria's crisis and its war against terrorism." This detail, reported by AFP, seems to have escaped mainstream attention, though it remains a useful reminder of just who—and what—Mr. Abbas is.

 

Similarly with pro-Palestinian demonstrators marching in the civilized nations. In Paris on Sunday, one such group of demonstrators tried to lay siege to a synagogue "with bats and chairs," according to the Associated Press, trapping 150 Jewish congregants inside until police could rescue them. A day earlier, a firebomb was thrown at a synagogue in a Paris suburb. At yet another French protest there were calls for the "slaughter of the Jews." In Seattle, a Voices for Palestine rally posted signs reading "Zionist Israel=Nazi Germany." In Frankfurt, protesters held signs reading "You Jews are Beasts." Police lent the protesters a loudspeaker, ostensibly to "de-escalate the situation," according to the Jerusalem Post. Maybe the Presbyterian Church, USA, which last month voted to divest from companies doing business with Israel, will issue a statement of concern. But don't count on it. All of which, as I say, is a blessing for Israel and her supporters.

 

If you must have a nemesis, better it be a stupid one. If your adversary has an undeserved reputation for moderation and sincerity, better that he should give his own extremism and hypocrisy away. If you are going to be the object of mass protests and calumny, better to be hated by the worst than by the best. Israel's enemies continuously indict themselves, whether or not the rest of the world has the wit to see it. What if it were otherwise? It has always been something of a surprise to me that Israel's enemies and critics have usually been too consumed by their own hatred to spot, or exploit, the Jewish state's most obvious weakness. This is not the narrowness of its borders, or the fractiousness of its politics, or its vulnerability to atomic attack, or this or that ticking demographic bomb, whether of the Palestinian, Israeli-Arab or ultra-Orthodox variety.

 

The real weakness is a certain kind of vanity that confuses stainlessness with virtue, favors moral self-regard over normal self-interest, and believes in politics as an exercise not in power but in self-examination. People, and nations, with such attitudes cannot be beaten militarily. But they can easily—too easily—be shamed. Witness the outpouring of national self-reproach following this month's murder of a Palestinian teenager by Jewish assailants. The killing was appalling, but it took Hamas's missiles to prevent it from turning into an excruciating morality play. It may someday be that Palestinians will wise up; that the next intifada, should it come, will be Gandhian in its methods and philosophy; that the next Palestinian leader will be in the mold of Vaclav Havel, not Fidel Castro. In the face of that kind of movement, Israeli resistance to a Palestinian state would crumble. But that's not the direction in which Palestine is going. Every Hamas missile and every barbaric protest is a reminder that the supreme purpose of Israel is to defend its people, not flatter them.

 

 

Contents

SORRY!                                                                                                                        

Daniel Gal                                                                                                                           

July, 2014

 

In Israel, Ephraim Kishon is considered one of the most humorous writers among our literati. It is a humor spiced with paprika, like that of his native Hungary. Some time after the Six Day War, when, after our sudden victory, the bulk of sympathy for Israel was transformed into acerbic criticism, he wrote an unforgettable book intended for the Western world: A Thousand Excuses, For Being Victorious. In effect, once the danger had passed, the world directed its cries of indignation against Israel.

 

In reading the present reactions to the Hamas aggression, with the limitless criticism [of Israel] in the media and from European politicians, I have a strong urge to plagiarize our dear Kishon, and to say to Israel's numerous critics:

 

Sorry, a thousand apologies for having the Iron Dome to protect us!

Sorry, that there has not been a life lost from the Israeli population.

Sorry, for having prepared the population on how to conduct itself when facing rockets flung indiscriminately at Israel.

Sorry, for wanting to live a normal life amidst all of this abnormality.

Sorry, for a lack of parity in the number of victims.

Sorry, for turning aside and destroying rockets launched at us before they could reach their civilian targets.

Sorry, for destroying a commando of Hamas frogmen as they were exiting the sea, before they could kill is.

Sorry, for not being able to offer you a war with images of our defeated people.

Sorry, for not offering you a proportionate war, as you would like.

 

I have watched over the last few hours as you have gone about trying to achieve a truce whatever the cost. I remember one of our great Ben Gurion's jokes: “Be sure that all parties will want a truce only when the outcome of the conflict tilts toward us.”

 

(Daniel Gal, former Israeli Consul-General in Quebec and Montreal, lives in Jerusalem.)

 

Contents                    

          

HAS SYRIA’S CHEMICAL WEAPONS

ARSENAL TRULY BEEN DISMANTLED?                                                             

Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham                                                                               

Besa, June 29, 2014

 

June 30, 2014 was set to be the deadline for the complete elimination of Syria’s chemical weapon (CW) capabilities, with the last portion of the declared arsenal removed from Syria just last week. But Syria has not been completely co-operative with international inspectors to say the least, and a lot of inquiry and supervision are still to be conducted. As the final date approaches, this paper aims to examine the events that lead to this situation, and highlight the various implications.

 

Currently, Syria is heavily involved in a lengthy, uncertain civil war. Consequently, Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, has been loath to completely dispose of Syria’s CW capabilities, as this essentially means the loss of a crucial component of his armament inventory. If not restrained internationally, Assad will definitely continue to use CW whenever conventional weapons are regarded by him as inadequate. The Syrian regime is fully aware of the critical role of CW for the outcome of the civil war. Assad has no moral qualms about using CW, and his Russian and Iranian allies would not truly discourage him from doing so, particularly if he is on the verge of losing the war. Nevertheless, it seems that Syria has ‘sacrificed’ a major portion of their CW arsenal. Threats of an attack on Syria by the U.S. for repeatedly and brutally using CW throughout the civil war has certainly had some influence in this. Ostensibly, Assad has met the Syrian undertaking of chemical disarmament, but in reality, the remaining, seemingly marginal, issues are of great concern and have dangerous potential.

 

A. In September 2013, upon declaring the quantity of the existing CW arsenal and production plus operational capacities, Syria reported 23 sites, the locations of which are not publicly disclosed. According to Syria, these sites held a combined 41 facilities containing “1,300 tons of chemical precursors and agents, plus 1,230 unfilled munitions.” Currently, no further investigations have been held in Syria to ascertain that no additional sites and/or additional quantities existed and/or were added.

 

B. It is not clear whether since September 2013 production of CW was entirely stopped throughout Syria. Additionally, reports by the Syrian opposition claiming hidden CW (mainly VX agent-loaded) in the area of Hama cannot be ignored. The opposition’s claim that at least 20% of the Syrian CW arsenal was not declared might be true.

 

C. The employment of toxic chemicals by the Syrian regime continued during the first half of 2014. The chemical attacks mainly included chlorine, ammonia, and possibly additional toxic chemicals, such as pesticides. Regardless of the list of chemical warfare agents Syria declared, common and industrial chemical weapons have been and may still be used. The typical delivery mode has been dropping intoxicating barrel-bombs from helicopters. Airborne chlorine-releasing canisters have been used as well.

 

D. Although prohibited by the CW and BW (biological weapons) conventions, no toxic materials of biological origin, namely toxins, were declared by Syria. However, such agents are probably present in the Syrian arsenal. Besides, it is highly likely that Syria also continues to maintain certain pathogens as deployable biological warfare agents.

 

E. The security and safety within the remaining Syrian CW facilities are doubtful. Although often serving Assad as an excuse, there is a tangible danger that the rebels seized, or are prone to seize, undeclared depots of Syrian CW. It is noteworthy that the Libyan army prevented the dispatch of mustard gas from Libya to the rebels in Syria.

 

Unsurprisingly, various hurdles to enforcing the agreement were raised by Syria. Damascus proposed rendering the facilities inoperable. Yet that claim was rejected as easily reversible, and therefore as falling far short of the requirement under the Chemical Weapons Convention that all aspects of its program be destroyed. Damascus has also denied free access to the inspectors to some of the relevant facilities.

 

Furthermore, Syria was demanded to revise their provided list of CW and consequently submitted a “more specific” list. The original list had been based on estimates, not exact amounts of toxic agents found in storage and production facilities across Syria. The revision of the list took place only after considerable discrepancies were pointed out between what the inspectors revealed, and what was on the original declaration. At any rate, it is doubtful that the revision is adequate.

 

Assad is reluctant to give up the remaining declared CW production facilities, and probably additional undeclared chemical armament. For now, the job done by the inspectors is notable, but is far from complete. Lessons should be learned from the sagas that took place during the chemical disarmament of Iraq and Libya. An undesirable zigzag chronicle that might now be emerging with regard to the total elimination of CW and related facilities in Syria ought not to be repeated. Paradoxically, in spite of all the impediments and risks, the Assad regime is perhaps the lesser of two evils in terms of handling the issue of the CW capabilities still found in Syria. The ideal alternative, even if theoretical for now, is to establish a Western or Western-Russian apparatus that will take hold of all of Syria’s CW related installations and fully control their contents. This might eventually be the ultimate scenario, considering that special Western and Arab units are still being trained for coping with toxic materials and atmospheres found in Syria.

 

Contents

WHAT DOES AN “ISLAMIC CALIPHATE” IN IRAQ MEAN?                    

Lt. Col. (ret.) Jonathan D. Halevi                                                                              

JCPA, July 1, 2014

 

On the first day of the month of Ramadan (29 June 2014), the day on which World Pride Day was celebrated as a marker of social and cultural progress, the reestablishment of the Islamic caliphate (state) was declared in Iraq and a caliph was appointed to lead it. The declaration of the establishment of the caliphate was transmitted via audiotape by Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, spokesman of ISIS – the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Greater Syria) – which changed its name to “the Islamic State.”

 

The Islamic State is trying to reinforce its battlefield achievements in Syria and Iraq by creating a new Sunni Muslim religious entity that threatens to overturn the prevailing regional political order rooted in the Sykes-Picot Agreement (1916) which set the borders and carved up the Middle East into European spheres of influence. The rule of the caliphate is applied to the territory under its control. This rule, however, does not accept the existing borders or the division of the Muslims into different states on a national basis. In the view of the Islamic State, the primal sin that led to the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, which was a continuation of the rule of the caliphate, lies in nationalism and in the adoption of Western ideologies, such as democracy, that are foreign to Islam. Hence, the jihad is aimed at overturning the existing order and enabling the expansion of the boundaries of the caliphate to encompass all territory where Muslims live.

 

The main objective of the Islamic State is to entrench its rule (imposing its authority and defeating local militias such as that of the Kurds) and repel the counterattack by the armies of Iraq and Syria, which are fully backed by Iran and Russia. The Islamic State’s military capability to expand the territories under its rule is limited. Therefore, its leaders are trying to attain force multipliers by directly appealing to Muslims all over the world to support the caliphate and calling on the Muslim population to rebel against existing governments and thereby accelerate the worldwide Islamic revolution. The timing of the declaration at the beginning of the month of Ramadan is of supreme importance in this context. The organization Hizb ut-Tahrir (which also has branches in the West) has already hastened to welcome the declaration of the caliphate. Fear of the Islamic State is evident in Saudi Arabia (the crown jewel in the Islamic State’s vision of conquest), in Jordan (the weak link), and in other countries (Lebanon has learned of the appointment of the leader of the Islamic State). The danger of regional instability is greater than ever.

 

The declaration of the caliphate poses a challenge to the rival Islamic organizations and particularly to the Muslim Brotherhood, which has tried to promote the concept of a “political Islam” that combines Islam and democracy (according to the Islamic interpretation) and is aimed at achieving the ultimate goal of global Islamic rule in stages. Over the past year the Islamic State has made clear that it sees no room for compromises with organizations that do not fully and unquestioningly accept its authority, as was well evident in the bloody war it waged against the Al-Qaeda-backed Jabhat al-Nusra organization in Syria until it extracted a declaration of loyalty from this group. The declaration of the caliphate escalates the conflict between Sunnis and Shiites and is likely to impact the Muslim communities in the West as well. In the Sunni Muslim context, the sense of identification with the caliphate creates conditions for expanded activity by groups associated with radical Islam in the West, including both the recruitment of mujahideen for combat and the perpetration of terror attacks.

 

Israel, which was not directly mentioned in the speech declaring the establishment of the Islamic caliphate, is included among the enemies that the Muslims are commanded to destroy so as to implement Islamic rule in the world. As a new regional reality emerges in the Middle East, Israel faces new and more complex security challenges than in the past. These challenges include the rise of radical Islam, increasing Iranian military involvement in Israel’s vicinity, direct threats to the stability of the Hashemite Kingdom in Jordan, and the strengthening of elements that support the Islamic State in the Palestinian territories. These threats, once again, sharply focus the issue of defensible borders west of the Jordan River…                    [To Read the Key Points in the “Declaration of the Caliphate,” & Footnotes, Click the following Link—Ed.]           

 

Contents

 

On Topic

 

A Gaza Ceasefire Now Would Be a Strategic Miss: David M. Weinberg, BESA, July 15, 2014—Should the proposed Egyptian ceasefire hold and Operation Protection Edge come to an end today, Israelis should breathe a sigh of relief and then prepare for the next round.

President Obama: Now is the Time: Marvin Hier, Jerusalem Post, July 14, 2014 —Now is the time for President Barack Obama to make that inconvenient call to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and finally deliver the news to him that the United States can no longer support a Palestinian government that includes ministers affiliated with Hamas, the terrorist group now firing hundreds of Iranian missiles at Israel’s major population centers.

Demographic Upheaval: How the Syrian War is Reshaping the Region: Pinhas Inbari, JCPA, June 17, 2014—The regime of Bashar Assad in Syria held general elections on June 3, 2014. Apart from the regime’s “victory” after three years of a bitter war, a key aim behind the elections was to entrench the demographic changes that have occurred in Syria during the war, making it more of a country of Alawites, Shiites, and minorities and less of a Sunni country.

ISIS Is About to Destroy Biblical History in Iraq: Christopher Dickey, Daily Beast, July 7, 2014 —More than two and a half millennia ago, the Assyrian King Senaccherib descended on his enemies “like the wolf on the fold,” as the Bible tells us—and as Lord Byron wrote in cantering cadences memorized by countless Victorian schoolchildren: “His cohorts were gleaming in purple and gold; And the sheen of their spears was like stars on the sea.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                            

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Contents:         

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