Over the weekend, Egypt held the final round of its presidential election, a run-off pitting Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi against ex-army man Ahmed Shafiq.
Despite claims of victory by both candidates, preliminary results show Morsi winning approximately 51.6 percent of the vote compared to 48.4 percent for Shafiq, with nearly all ballots counted.
Egypt’s military generals, however, are not going down without a fight. Following last week’s dissolution of the country’s Islamist-dominated parliament, ascribed at least in part to the ruling military council, the generals moved to further consolidate their grip on power by issuing a constitutional decree, mere minutes after polling stations closed on Sunday, which greatly expanded their own authority while curtailing that of the presidency.
Accordingly, no matter whose candidate comes out on top when official results are announced on June 21, Egypt’s Islamist and military brass undoubtedly will find themselves on a collision course.
EGYPT’S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES DECLARE VICTORY,
BUT MILITARY GENERALS ASSERT VAST POWER
Ernesto Londoño and Leila Fadel
Washington Post, June18, 2012
Both Egyptian presidential candidates claimed victory Monday, even though ballots were still being tallied and the extent of the victor’s power remained unclear after a bold assertion of control by Egypt’s military generals.…
On Sunday, the country’s military leaders issued a constitutional decree that gave the armed forces sweeping powers and downgraded the presidency to a subservient role. The seizure of power followed months in which Egypt’s ruling generals had promised to cede authority to a new civilian government by the end of June. Activists and political analysts charged that the generals’ move instead marked the start of a military dictatorship, a sharp reversal from the promise of Egypt’s popular revolt last year.
The generals sought to play down the scope of the decree during a news conference Monday. Maj. Gen. Mohamed el-Assar said the military chiefs would hold a grand ceremony before the end of the month to hand over the reins of power to the new president. “The elected president will receive all the authorized powers of the president of the republic,” Assar said.…
Just after dawn on Monday, Morsi supporters trickled into Tahrir Square to celebrate the conservative Islamist’s purported victory. Brotherhood predictions of election results have proven accurate in the past, and Morsi was ahead in the polls with 51.6 percent of the vote, according to preliminary results reported on the state-run al-Ahram Web site.…
Under the generals’ decree, [however], Egypt’s president will have no control over the military’s budget or leadership and will not be authorized to declare war without the consent of the ruling generals. The document said the military would soon name a group of Egyptians to draft a new constitution, which will be subject to a public referendum within three months. Once a new charter is in place, a parliamentary election will be held to replace the Islamist-dominated lower house that was dissolved last Thursday after the country’s high court ruled that one-third of the chamber’s members had been elected unlawfully.…
The declaration left little doubt that the generals have moved aggressively to preserve and expand their privileged status.… The constitutional declaration will be binding at least until a new charter is approved. But because the generals will appoint the body that will draft that document, they are expected to ensure that the new constitution leaves them with continued power and shields them from scrutiny and prosecution.…
ISLAMISTS, MILITARY ON A COLLISION COURSE IN EGYPT
Rick Moran
FrontPage, June 18, 2012
Egyptians finished two days of [presidential] voting on Sunday…but indications are that only about 15% of Egypt’s 50 million eligible voters bothered to cast ballots. The low turnout was a direct result of a Supreme Court decision last Thursday that dissolved the Islamist-dominated parliament and struck down a law that would have prevented former Mubarak-era prime Minister, Ahmed Shafiq, from running for president. The twin blows caught the Muslim Brotherhood flat-footed as the military moved incredibly swiftly to seize legislative power and issue[d] a “constitutional declaration” that defines the powers of the president in the absence of a new constitution.…
Many observers are saying that the military council ruling Egypt has already won the presidential race. That’s because no matter who is elected, they will have to serve under parliamentary rules set down by the military, act under a constitution that will be drawn up by an assembly that will probably be appointed by the military, and would likely be constrained to act by laws approved by the military.…
The Muslim Brothers, who were caught by surprise when the court destroyed their power base by dissolving parliament, appear to be regaining their equilibrium. After the polls closed Sunday night, the Brotherhood announced that it had rejected the court order dissolving parliament, calling it a “coup against the entire democratic process.” They also rejected the constitutional decree and vowed that the constituent assembly they appointed in parliament last week to create the new constitution will write the new charter, not the generals.
This would seem to put the two power centers of Egyptian politics on a collision course. But the Islamists have struck deals with the military previously, and it is possible they will accede to the new order as long as Morsi is declared the winner of the election and new rules governing the election of members of parliament don’t shut them out of power. For their part, the generals might accept sharing power with the Brotherhood as long as they maintain their independence from government—much like the Pakistani generals enjoy in that country.…
Whatever is decide[d], stability for a nation riven by divisions along political and religious lines will prove elusive.
IS EGYPT THE NEW ALGERIA?
Michael Rubin
Contentions, June 14, 2012
Egypt’s Supreme Constitutional Court’s ruling dissolving the Islamist-dominated parliament elected just six months ago turn[ed] Egypt’s already rough-and-tumble political situation on its head. While all eyes have been on the presidential elections, the parliament was in many ways more important: Charged with writing the new constitution, the parliament was about 80 percent Islamist.… [By disbanding it], the Egyptian military hopes…that they can have a “do-over” [and] reverse the populist wave which the Islamists rode during their first electoral test.…
The danger, however, is popular outrage. Islamist clerics have already made clear they would take to the streets to fight any election which did not go their way. It has been more than two decades since the Algerian government, stunned by an Islamist victory in their 1991 elections and the victors’ promise to revise the constitution, decided to cancel the elections, unleashing a brutal civil war that killed perhaps 200,000. The major reason why Algerians did not get caught up in the Arab Spring protests was that the scars of violence during the 1990s remain too fresh.…
In Algeria, the population is largely spread along its 600-mile coastline. In Egypt, most of the 80 million are crammed into the narrow Nile River Valley. Egypt’s court and its generals are taking a large risk, indeed. If history repeats, the cost could be much higher.
MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD (PROBABLY) WINS PRESIDENCY;
EGYPTIAN-ISLAMIST JIHAD AGAINST ISRAEL (APPARENTLY) BEGINS
Barry Rubin
Pajamas Media, June 18, 2012
A well-organized, well-equipped group of terrorists attacked Israel from Egyptian territory Monday morning, possibly the second such Egyptian-assisted assault in a week. As for Egypt’s presidential election, the Brotherhood candidate, Muhammad al-Mursi, seems the likely winner.…
Al-Mursi has openly declared his support for Hamas and priority on battling Israel on some level. Those campaigning for him, in his presence, have said that the Brotherhood is seeking a Sharia state in Egypt and a caliphate over the whole Middle East whose capital will be in a conquered Jerusalem. The Salafists—a coalition of many hardline Islamist groups—gave the Brotherhood candidate full support.
An armed squad of two men—said to be Hamas, though this is not confirmed—crossed the border after travelling 30 miles from the Gaza Strip through Egyptian territory. They wore flak jackets, camouflaged uniforms, and carried a large amounts of explosives. Members of their support team remained on the Egyptian side of the border. The two men hid by Israel’s highway 12, near an area called White River Lake.
When two vehicles came by, carrying workers finishing up a security fence to guard against just such attacks, they set off a bomb that had been placed on the roadway and fired a rocket-propelled grenade. Both missed but bullets from a Kalashnikov hit one of the vehicles which flipped over. One Israeli, an ethnic Arab labor contractor, was killed [with another seriously injured].… Within minutes, Israeli soldiers arrived and fired on the terrorists. Their bullets blew up a suicide vest being worn by one of them, killing two of the attackers.
This event follows a report in Haaretz newspaper, attributed to Israeli security officials, that the Muslim Brotherhood had asked Hamas to attack Israel. According to the story, an Egyptian Bedouin unit was given the job of firing a rocket, which landed in open ground in southern Israel [last Friday].… So far this year, 280 rockets have been fired from the Gaza Strip into Israel. This has prompted no international concern or action. The new fence along the Egypt-Israel border is mostly complete but due to difficult terrain the last portion will only be finished late this year.
At any rate, we are now at the beginning of Egypt’s involvement, directly or indirectly, in a new wave of terrorist assault on Israel. If the Muslim Brotherhood takes over Egypt, a likelihood made less probable perhaps by the military’s dissolution of parliament, this offensive will enjoy official support. Even if the army remains in control, the Brotherhood and Salafists will use their considerable assets to back this new insurgency war.
The ultimate scenario would be if Hamas decided to renew a large-scale offensive against Israel from the Gaza Strip using rockets, mortars, and attempted cross-border attacks. Egyptian Islamists would send volunteers and money. The Egyptian army would not be scrupulous in stopping the smuggling of weapons, terrorists, and money across the border. As Egyptian fighters are killed in the Gaza Strip the hysteria in Egypt would escalate.
In such a scenario, the army would also allow Hamas to have military bases and headquarters on Egyptian territory, where Israel could not attack them. Indeed, this is already happening.… A most serious scenario would be if Egypt itself was dragged (under an army regime) or went willingly (under a Brotherhood one) to war with Israel.
Where is the U.S. government in all of this? It’s insisting that the Egyptian military turn power over to a civilian government which, until last week, would have been a Brotherhood government. Washington is merely a distant observer, and one continuing to insist on Muslim Brotherhood moderation despite that group’s extremist history and actions. The policy choice taken by Obama is to issue statements supporting democracy and to view the Brotherhood as a force that can be co-opted and moderated. The mass media generally follows this lead in setting the narrative. A different president would understand that the Islamists are the enemy of America and support the military in trying to limit their power. This distinction matters big-time. It helps determine not only the fate of U.S. interests but also the future of 80 million Egyptians, Israel’s security, and the likelihood of further upheavals and wars in the Middle East.
EGYPT IS LIKE GAZA EXCEPT ISRAEL CAN’T RESPOND
Yaakov Katz
Jerusalem Post, June 18, 2012
[Last] Friday night, two rockets were fired into Israel from the Sinai and on Sunday a number of mortars were fired into Israel from Gaza.… But here is the main difference: while Israel can retaliate and respond militarily to attacks from Gaza, its hands are—for the time being—tied in face of the same threats it faces from Egypt.
Since the fall of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, the number of intelligence alerts that the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) has recorded regarding a possible attack from the Sinai has more than tripled and there is a standing general warning in place at the IDF’s Edom Division, responsible for the border. The problem is that unlike the Gaza Strip, Israel will not and likely cannot act freely—militarily speaking—when it comes to Egypt, even if it knows about a ticking terrorist bomb.
Ties with the regime are already tense ever since Mubarak was overthrown last February and an Israeli attack on Egyptian soil—no matter what the target and the legitimacy—would not be taken lightly. This would not change no matter who is elected as Egypt’s new president but particularly under the Muslim Brotherhood.…
Israel still does not know who was behind the [latest border] attack but the first likely culprit is a terrorist organization [based in] the Gaza Strip—either Hamas, Islamic Jihad or the Popular Resistance Committees, the group which orchestrated the attack last August along the Egyptian boundary [which killed 8 Israelis]. It is possible that the perpetrators this time were also Beduin, which needs to serve as a point of concern for Israel since it means that the attackers are not just Gazans operating from the Sinai but also local residents who are turning to terror.
In response to the attack, Israel’s Defense Ministry has already announced that it will speed up construction of the security barrier it has been building there for the past year. The IDF will also likely maintain a larger presence along the border.
Ultimately though, senior defense officials admit that Israel cannot deal with the terror threat on its own and that it will need the Egyptian government to work to regain control over the Sinai and weed out the terrorists there.
[During Monday’s deadly attack, the IDF moved a number of Merkava tanks up to the Egyptian border to help protect against additional infiltrations. The decision, made with full knowledge that the 1979 Israel-Egypt peace treaty forbids the deployment of Israeli tanks in the area, demonstrates the severity of the growing terror threat emanating from Sinai. The tanks were removed immediately after the IDF confirmed that all of the terrorists had been accounted for and none remained inside Israeli territory—Ed.]
