Table Of Contents:
After Soleimani killing, Iran’s proxy War to impact Afghanistan and Pakistan: Shamil Shams, DW, Jan. 7, 2020
Taliban Links To Iran Threaten Peace Talks With U.S.: Abubakar Siddique, Gandhara, Jan. 10, 2020
Taliban Admits ‘Peace’ Negotiations With U.S. are Merely Means to Withdraw ‘Foreign Forces’: Bill Roggio, FDD, Jan. 21, 2020
US Killing Soleimani has Made it Much Tougher for Pakistan than India: Ayesha Siddiqa, The Print, Jan. 9, 2020
______________________________________________________
After Soleimani Killing, Iran’s Proxy War to Impact Afghanistan and Pakistan
Shamil Shams
DW, Jan. 7, 2020
The assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, by the US on January 3 has created a sense of unease in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, which is already vulnerable to Islamist militancy.
Both the Afghan and Pakistani governments have urged restraint by Washington and Tehran, fearing that an all-out US-Iran war could unleash uncontrollable violence on their soil.
Iran has vowed retaliation for the US’ airstrike against Soleimani in Iraq, but experts say the hardline Shiite regime in Tehran is not in a position to directly confront Washington. Instead, it could attempt to harm US interests in the Middle East, as well as Afghanistan, they say.
Saudi Arabia — a longtime US ally in the Middle East — and Iran are already engaged in a proxy war in places across the region.
The Iranian regime has also expanded its influence in Afghanistan over the past decade, and more recently by directly engaging with the Taliban.
Taliban commanders have traditionally been allied to Riyadh due to the Sunni-Wahhabi ideology they share with Saudi monarchs.
But the influence of both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on the Islamist group has been substantially reduced in the past few years. Tehran has made inroads in the region, and security analysts say it could complicate matters for US President Donald Trump’s administration, which has been trying to finalize a peace deal with the Taliban for a respectable departure from the war-torn country.
The Taliban as Iran’s proxies?
The Afghan government said Friday it was concerned about an escalation of violence in the region after Soleimani’s death. “We call on the Islamic Republic of Iran, our big neighbor, with whom we have a common language, religious, historic and cultural [values], and on the US, who is Afghanistan’s strategic and fundamental partner, to prevent conflict escalation, and we hope that both sides solve their differences through negotiations,” said a statement from Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s office.
The statement depicts Kabul’s dilemma, as it does not want to offend the US, nor does it need another violent conflict on Afghanistan’s long border with Iran. And yet, Soleimani’s killing is likely to sabotage the peace process with the Taliban.
Iran promises ‘harsh retaliation’
Attiqullah Amarkhail, a retired Afghan general, and security analyst, praised President Ghani’s “neutral” stance on the US-Iran conflict, but at the same time acknowledged potential risks. “Soleimani had supporters in a number of extremist groups in Afghanistan, and they could act against the US. Iran is not capable of directly attacking US targets in the country; the only force that can do that is the Taliban,” Amarkhail told DW, referring to Soleimani’s alleged role in recruiting Afghans to fight for President Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
The situation will have a negative impact on the ongoing peace process as well as the overall security situation in Afghanistan, the expert added.
Abdul Baqi Amin, the head of the QASED Strategic Research Center in Afghanistan, said the Afghan government must remain neutral in the conflict, although he admitted that Iran can influence Afghan politicians. … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
______________________________________________________
Taliban Links To Iran Threaten Peace Talks With U.S.
Abubakar Siddique
Gandhara, Jan. 10, 2020
A quarter-century ago, Afghanistan’s hard-line Sunni Taliban movement emerged as a mortal enemy of the Shi’ite clerical regime in neighboring Iran. But amid today’s high U.S.-Iran tensions, Tehran’s influence over the Taliban could sabotage its peace negotiations with Washington.
Days after U.S. forces killed Qasem Soleimani, the most senior Iranian military leader, senior American officials are warning of Tehran’s protentional spoiler role in preventing the Taliban from concluding a peace agreement with their country. The agreement is seen as setting a path toward ending more than four decades of war in Afghanistan.
Sami Yousafzai, an Afghan journalist specializing in covering the Taliban, says the Taliban and Iran’s clerical regime are poles apart. They adhere to different Muslim sects, and their strategic outlook is vastly dissimilar. “Yet they have worked out a strong tactical understanding, which entails a lot of cooperation and assistance,” he told RFE/RL’s Gandhara website on January 10.
Yousafzai says Iran ostensibly supports the Afghan peace process, which could achieve a milestone with an imminent formal agreement between the Taliban and the United States. “Behind the scenes, however, Iran actively feeds the Taliban false hopes that they have won the war and that their resistance will force the U.S. to leave Afghanistan in humiliation,” he noted. “Such tactics are ultimately aimed at sabotaging the peace talks.”
Iranian officials, however, have repeatedly rejected assertions that they are seeking to destabilize Afghanistan. “The Islamic Republic of Iran has striven to interact with this group [the Taliban] and convince them to hold talks with the central government of Afghanistan in order to reach a solution,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi said in December. “We believe that our well-being is intertwined with neighboring countries’ well-being, [and] this would reduce some of the losses inflicted on the region.”
Yousafzai, however, says relations between Tehran and the Taliban have improved well beyond diplomatic niceties. He said that in November many senior Taliban leaders preferred to meet with their deputy leader and chief negotiator Mullah Baradar in Iran instead of Pakistan. Baradar visited Pakistan in October.
Members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps take part in a demonstration against the assassination of the Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, head of the elite Quds Force, and Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis won January 3.
He says Ibrahim Sadar, the current Taliban military chief, and Mullah Gul Agha Akhund, the head of Taliban finances, were among the key figures who held consultations with Baradar in Iran. The two are also prominent leadership figures from the southern province of Helmand. Most of the world’s illicit opium and heroin supplies come from the large province, situated near Iran. “In recent months, many mid-level Taliban commanders from Helmand were trained in Iran,” Yousafzai said of his discussions with contacts within the Taliban ranks. Since its inception in the mid-1990s, Helmand has been a key bastion for the Taliban because it supplies many key leaders and foot soldiers. … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
______________________________________________________
Taliban Admits ‘Peace’ Negotiations With U.S. are Merely Means to Withdraw ‘Foreign Forces’
Bill Roggio
FDD, Jan. 21, 2020
The Taliban admitted this week that current negotiations with the “arrogant” U.S. – often billed as “peace talks” that will purportedly end the fighting in Afghanistan – are merely being conducted to facilitate “the withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan.”
The Taliban made the statements in its latest commentary, titled “Powerless shall always remain shareless…!,” which was published in English on Jan. 20 on its official website, Voice of Jihad.
In addition, the terrorist group called the Afghan government “impotent,” “powerless,” “incapable,” “a tool of the invaders,” and a host of other insults in the statement. The Taliban was clear, as it has consistently been clear, that it would not deal with the Afghan government, which has been “sidelined [by the U.S.] in every major decision regarding Afghanistan.”
The statement opened with the Taliban referring to itself as “the Islamic Emirate,” the name of its government. The Taliban has repeatedly stated that the only acceptable outcome to the war is the reimposition of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and a return to its brutal form of “islamic governance.”
“After nearly two decades of armed struggle and resistance by the Islamic Emirate against foreign occupation, the invaders have come to the conclusion that this war unwinnable …” the Taliban said. “It is due to this realization that arrogant America has pursued negotiations with the Emirate and is holding talks about the withdrawal of their forces …”
The Afghan government is an “an impotent and incapable governing system” that “has consistently been sidelined in every major decision regarding Afghanistan,” including ongoing negotiations. “[Y]et again the stooge administration remains marginalized and has not even yet even been informed about the latest developments by the lead American negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad,” it continued.
Khalilzad, the U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, has desperately been attempting to cut a deal with the Taliban and has excluded the Afghan government numerous times in an attempt to make it happen. While billed as a “peace” deal, an agreement between the U.S. and the Taliban would not bring peace to the country.
The Taliban has refused to negotiate directly with the Afghan government, which it holds in contempt, but has agreed to consider vague “intra-Afghan talks.” As part of that accord, the U.S. was willing to accept the Taliban’s supposed counterterrorism assurances, despite the fact that the Taliban has harbored al Qaeda to this day and refuses to denounce the group by name. In fact, the Taliban has glorified al Qaeda’s attack on Sept. 11, 2001 in its propaganda as recently as July 2019.
Over the past decade, the Taliban has consistently stated that it will not share power with a “puppet” Afghan government that it considers “impotent” and “un-Islamic.” A statement released as far back as Jan. 2016 highlighted that position. “The Islamic Emirate has not readily embraced this death and destruction for the sake of some silly ministerial posts or a share of the power,” the group said in an official statement.
“The people of Afghanistan readily sacrifice their sons to achieve this objective [the ejection of U.S. forces and the restoration of the Islamic Emirate]. And the Emirate – as the true representative of our people – will not end its peaceful and armed endeavors until we have achieved this hope of Afghanistan.”
The Taliban drove this point home by quoting what it calls “a famous Afghan proverb,” in the headline to its statement: “[The] Powerless shall always remain shareless.” … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
______________________________________________________
US Killing Soleimani has Made it Much Tougher for Pakistan than India
Ayesha Siddiqa
The Print, Jan. 9, 2020
The US military’s assassination of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani has left leaders around the world nervous. But the current situation is much tougher for Pakistan than India. With stock markets and global oil prices reacting negatively, most states are concerned about their own security against a potential fallout. Now, Iran has launched missiles at American troops in Iraq. But the bigger question is how to deal with Donald Trump’s US for which military exigencies rule out diplomatic choices.
Much as PM Narendra Modi and his team may longingly look at Donald Trump’s action as worth following, all South Asian countries including India would have to act cautiously without getting embroiled in any conflict in the Middle East. New Delhi is on America’s side and closely following Washington’s policies, which is why oil supply from Iran was stopped by the middle of 2019. Last year, Modi regime also agreed to a business partnership with Saudi Arabia with the expectation of not just building an economic partnership but also in the process, ensuring that Riyadh sees that its interests lie equally in India rather than just in Pakistan.
Tougher fight for Pakistan
After the Soleimani killing, popular sentiment in many of the Muslim countries has become more anti-US. In case of an escalation, there could even be a public outcry in Pakistan to sever all ties with the US. In over 60 years of bilateral ties between Pakistan and the US, public opinion in the former towards the latter has consistently gone from bad to worse. Notwithstanding the popularity of the US visa, people from the Left to the Right of the political spectrum are not fond of US diplomacy, or at least use anti-American slogans to muster domestic support even when they have cooperated with the US. In case of an attack on any of Iran’s religious sites, even by way of reaction to a potential Iranian retaliation, it could be a nightmare for security and law enforcement agencies to stop people from marching towards the American diplomatic mission in Islamabad. One is reminded of an attack on the US embassy in Pakistan in 1979 after the siege of Mecca, in which Washington was not even remotely involved but the rumour was that it had a hand.
Surely, those were different times. Pakistan was ruled by General Zia-ul-Haq, who had taken over the country more than two years ago and was keen to draw American attention, which he received after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan on Christmas Eve that year. Zia-ul-Haq was out cycling as the embassy building was torched by an angry mob for which Pakistan had to reimburse Washington. General Qamar Javed Bajwa, the current army chief, who is equally in control of the state without declaring martial law, would not imagine allowing a repeat of 1979. The American President in 1979, Jimmy Carter, was a different man, who emphasised human rights, unlike trigger-happy incumbent Donald Trump.
The Iran-US conflict may prove disruptive for Bajwa’s desire to rebuild relations with the US. From the time that the relation had nose-dived to a point that Trump tweeted his anger against Pakistan in 2018, ties were rebuilt with Saudi and British help, especially with the high-powered Pakistani delegation’s visit to Washington in July 2019. Although the delegation was led by Prime Minister Imran Khan, General Bajwa was the centre of attention. The visit opened doors for dialogue between the American leadership and Pakistan Army, which was evident with the US announcing the resumption of military training for Pakistan. This is likely to remain on track even if Rawalpindi does not indicate eagerness to join any US action against Iran. The training is an investment in relations with Pakistan’s officer cadre and building a pro-US lobby inside the GHQ. It is this lobby that seems to be pushing to bring a balance between ties with the US versus those with China. … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
______________________________________________________
For Further Reference:
Iran’s Support to the Taliban, which has Included MANPADS and a Bounty on US Troops, could be a Spoiler for Peace in Afghanistan: Shawn Snow, Military Times, Jan. 14, 2020 — As the U.S. looks to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan, recent tensions coupled with Iran’s history of meddling in the country could jeopardize talks between the U.S. and the Taliban to end the 18-year long conflict.
Afghans Brace For Potential Fallout Of Soleimani’s Killing: Abubakar Siddique, Gandhara, Jan. 3, 2020 — Afghanistan’s four-decade-long conflict has been defined by the intervention of great powers and the meddling of neighbors who have ostensibly pursued their interests by arming or fighting various Afghan factions or facilitating their infighting.
The “Afghanistan Papers” and the Delusions of Nation-Building: Jed Babbin, Washington Post, Dec. 28, 2019 –-The “Afghanistan Papers,” published by The Washington Post, should be the center of public debate for what they reveal about our longest war. Because the media are chasing the shiny objects of impeachment and election primaries, what should be one of the most important debates since Sept. 11, 2001, is not happening.
How Suleimani’s Death will Affect India and Pakistan: Rashmee Roshan Lall, The National, Jan. 6, 2020 –– To properly consider the possible fallout of Friday’s targeted US strike on Qassem Suleimani, of Iran’s elite Quds Force, disregard the tub-thumping rhetoric from Washington and the ominous rumblings from Tehran. Listen instead of the sound of silences within disparate countries’ statements on the situation.
