Yemen’s “Southern Hezbollah”: Implications of Houthi Missile and Drone Improvements
Michael Knights
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Apr. 1, 2021
“Such attacks are becoming a weekly occurrence, underlining the presence of a mature missile/drone assembly industry in Houthi-held areas of Yemen and foreshadowing further range increases that could allow the Iran-backed rebels to reach new targets if they so desire—perhaps Israel given their known enmity toward that country, or even Egypt and Jordan”
In March 25, Yemen’s Houthi militia attacked Saudi Arabia with eighteen explosive drones and eight ballistic missiles, among other weapons, striking energy targets as far away as the oil-rich Eastern Province (around 900 miles from the launch points) and the Red Sea coast (up to 650 miles away). Such attacks are becoming a weekly occurrence, underlining the presence of a mature missile/drone assembly industry in Houthi-held areas of Yemen and foreshadowing further range increases that could allow the Iran-backed rebels to reach new targets if they so desire—perhaps Israel given their known enmity toward that country, or even Egypt and Jordan as part of a wider effort to exert themselves in the Red Sea (e.g., hindering international shipping, targeting Suez Canal infrastructure). Accordingly, U.S. diplomats and military planners will need to factor this threat complex into their future calculations beyond the current Yemen war.
Michael Knights, the Bernstein Fellow with The Washington Institute, has visited Yemen and the Gulf coalition states multiple times to observe military operations during the war. Institute research assistant Henry Mihm provided data analytics for this PolicyWatch.
Iran-Backed Fighters Launch More Attacks in Yemen as U.S. Looks to Cut Ties
Dion Nissenbaum
WSJ, Mar. 17, 2021
“If we cannot make progress now, the country will spiral into greater conflict and instability,” Tim Lenderking, the special U.S. envoy, said last week after presenting the Houthis with a new proposal to end the fighting.”
A detachment of Saudi-backed Yemeni soldiers—armed with AK-47s, rocket-propelled grenades and a single tank—keep watch from a rock outcropping, scanning the vast expanse of desert below them for signs of activity by Iranian-backed Houthi fighters.
“They’re out there,” said Yemeni Maj. Gen. Ameen Alwaili. “They’re pushing in from three sides.”
This small outpost is on the front lines of a continuing battle between the Houthi rebels and Yemen’s U.N.-recognized government, which is trying to hold on to Marib, its last stronghold in the north of the country and site of a coveted oil refinery.
In recent weeks, Houthi forces, using armed drones, ballistic missiles and mortars, have moved within a few miles of the city.
If Marib falls, Yemeni government and Saudi officials warned, it would give the Houthis and their Iranian allies control of a strategically valuable area that could serve as a launchpad for continued strikes on Saudi Arabia’s oil industry infrastructure and other targets.
—Saleh al-Batati in Oxford, England and Stephen Kalin in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, contributed to this article.
Gregory D. Johnsen
Brookings, Mar. 25, 2021
“after six years of war, thousands of missiles and bombs, hundreds of thousands of deaths, and the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, Yemen has fractured to the point that it is unlikely ever to be reconstituted as a single state.”
Six years ago today, Saudi Arabia announced the beginning of Operation Decisive Storm from Washington, DC. Riyadh said the initial airstrikes were designed to push the rebel Houthis out of Yemen’s capital of Sanaa and restore interim President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi to power. The war, which Saudi Arabia told Obama administration officials would take about “six weeks,” has not gone according to plan. Saudi Arabia has not achieved any of its military objectives in Yemen. President Hadi remains in exile, his government is weak and in disarray, and the Houthis are stronger now than they were when the fighting began.
Indeed, after six years of war, thousands of missiles and bombs, hundreds of thousands of deaths, and the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, Yemen has fractured to the point that it is unlikely ever to be reconstituted as a single state. Nor will the country revert to a pre-1990 north-south division. Instead of one or two Yemens, there are now multiple Yemens, tiny statelets and zones of control held by an expanding number of armed groups, all of which have different goals and trajectories.
The Houthis Are the Problem in Yemen, Not the Saudis
Asaf Day
The Defense Post, Mar. 22, 2021
“The Biden administration’s delisting of the group as a foreign terrorist organization, coupled with the withdrawal of US support for the Kingdom in the war a week earlier, is yet another example of the short-sightedness and lack of understanding of the Houthis as rogue actors.”
After more than half a decade of conflict, one might think that the West, and particularly the US, would know how to deal strategically with and understand the Houthis’ behavior in the Yemeni civil war. However, in recent weeks US policy regarding the group continues to highlight the country’s failure, or perhaps unwillingness, to grasp the Iranian-backed militia’s role in the conflict.
As the popular saying goes, “If you give the Houthis a finger, they will take the whole hand.” True to this saying, the group has exploited every concession or ceasefire during the conflict to reorganize and improve its standing. Once it does, it blatantly violates these agreements to make further advances.
Asaf Day is a Middle East and North Africa geopolitical analyst. He is a security and Due Diligence analyst at a Luxemburg-based firm. Asaf is a Political Science PhD student at the University of Kansas and has an MA Degree in Arabic Studies and a BA in Middle Eastern Studies. In addition to English, Asaf speaks fluent Hebrew and Arabic, as well as Turkish and French to a lesser degree.
For Further Reference
Yemen’s Houthis Developing Increasingly Lethal Drones With Support Of Iran: Jamie Prentis, N World, Feb 19, 2020 — Iranian support has boosted the capability of deadly drones used by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, new research has concluded.
Israel Should Provide Saudi Arabia With Iron Dome Batteries: Seth J. Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, Mar. 22, 2021 — Israel must consider assisting Saudi Arabia, which is under constant missile attack, according to an article by Yoel Guzansky published Sunday in Globes.
Officials: Yemeni Government Retakes Territory From Rebels: Ahmed Al-Haj, Yahoo News, Mar. 14, 2021 — Forces of Yemen’s internationally recognized government managed to retake swaths of territory from the Houthi rebels in the past days, officials and tribal leaders from both sides said on Sunday.
In Yemen, Antisemitism Is Rampant Even Though Few Jews Actually Live There: David Ian Klein, Forward, Apr. 14, 2021 — “Death to America. Death to Israel. A curse upon the Jews. Victory to Islam,” reads the banner of the Ansar Allah — the Partisans of God — more commonly known as Yemen’s Houthi militia.
Houthis Say They Attacked Aramco, Patriot Targets in Saudi Arabia: AlJazeera, Apr. 15, 2021 — Yemen’s Houthi rebels have claimed they used drones and missiles to attack oil installation and military targets in the southern Saudi city of Jazan, with a site belonging to state oil giant Aramco catching fire in the attack on Thursday.
