CONFRONTING IRANIAN AGGRESSION: NEW ALLIANCES
What Washington—and Iran—Should Take Away from the Warsaw Conference: Dennis Ross, Washington Institute, Feb. 19, 2019 — “Takeaways” is the classic Washington term used to encapsulate the outcomes of high-profile diplomatic gatherings. Last week, I was invited to moderate a panel at the “Ministerial to Promote a Future of Peace and Security in the Middle East,” cohosted in Warsaw by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Polish foreign minister Jacek Czaputowicz on February 13-14.
Why Are Leading European Countries Helping Iran?: Joshua S. Bloch, Algemeiner, Feb. 21, 2019 — In an extraordinarily blunt speech at the US-hosted Middle East conference in Poland, Vice President Mike Pence lashed out at some of America’s closest allies for shielding the doomed 2015 nuclear accord with Iran.
Nine Months Later, Trump’s Iran-Deal Withdrawal Is a Clear Success: Fred Fleitz, National Review, Feb. 7, 2019 — Despite howls of protest by the Left, the foreign-policy establishment, and European leaders, and contrary to misleading assessments by U.S. intelligence agencies, it is now clear that President Trump’s decision last May to withdraw the United States from the controversial 2015 nuclear deal with Iran (the JCPOA) was the right call and is a huge policy success.
The Iranian Modus Operandi: Lt. Col. Dr. Dany Shohan, BESA, Dec. 7, 2018 — Iran considers Israel an archenemy, and it is a highly sophisticated and clever antagonist.
.On Topic Links
The Iranian Land Bridge in the Levant: The Return of Territory in Geopolitics: Fabrice Balanche, TELOScope, Friday, September 14, 2018
The Iranians and the Russians Are Not Natural Allies: Dore Gold, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, Feb. 19, 2019. Podcast
The American Intelligence Threat Assessment on Iran’s Nuclear Program: Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, February 12, 2019
Chehabi Speaks on Panel at FDD on Islamic Republic of Iran: FDD, Feb. 13, 2019, Video
What Washington – And Iran – Should Take Away From The Warsaw Conference Dennis Ross
Washington Institute, Feb. 19, 2019
“Takeaways” is the classic Washington term used to encapsulate the outcomes of high-profile diplomatic gatherings. Last week, I was invited to moderate a panel at the “Ministerial to Promote a Future of Peace and Security in the Middle East,” cohosted in Warsaw by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Polish foreign minister Jacek Czaputowicz on February 13-14. The panel included three senior Arab officials—Saudi minister of state for foreign affairs Adel al-Jubeir, Emirati Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed, and Bahraini foreign minister Khalid bin Ahmed al-Khalifa. Afterward, I interviewed Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who also attended the event. These and other conversations yielded several interesting—and in many cases promising—takeaways.
First, the event was marked by a variety of convergences that should make Iran take notice. From the outset, Secretary Pompeo acknowledged the participants’ clear differences of opinion on certain regional issues, urging everyone to discuss these rifts openly and honestly as they worked to advance common positions. Regarding Iran, European ministers reemphasized that they would not walk away from the nuclear deal, yet they also embraced the need to counter unacceptable Iranian behaviors, including ballistic missile tests and threatening military actions in the Middle East.
Second, the Europeans were alarmed by the strikingly similar stories they have heard from Arab ministers and Netanyahu in describing Iran’s efforts to destabilize the region and exploit conflicts, whether by smuggling arms into Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, using Shia militias to coerce governments, providing missiles to Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, encouraging terrorism and subversion, deploying missiles on bases in Syria and western Iraq, or developing factories to build precision guidance capabilities for thousands of rockets in Lebanon and Syria. In essence, those on the frontlines of regional conflicts told their European friends that Iran will not stop fomenting trouble abroad unless its costs for doing so become far more acute. Interestingly, Arab ministers noted that sanctions are only part of the solution; in their view, creating consequences for Iran also entails unifying their own efforts, portraying a solid, collective front of opposition, and doing much more to tell the Iranian public about the costs of their government’s adventures.
Third, the Arab-Israeli strategic landscape appears to be changing, even if the “new Middle East” envisioned by the late Shimon Peres is not yet in the offing. The Warsaw meeting was not like other international gatherings or peace conferences involving top Arab and Israeli officials. Beginning with Madrid in 1991 and stretching to Annapolis in 2007, past meetings involved each side giving set-piece speeches with no real discussion or engagement. Warsaw was different: it was about moderated questions and comments, with all participants sitting in closed settings and listening to each other directly, including Arab foreign ministers and Israel’s prime minister.
For example, during a discussion of how to counter Tehran’s low-cost tactic of using Shia militias abroad, I noted that Israel had carried out more than 200 operations against Iranian and proxy forces attempting to embed themselves in Syria. When I asked one of the Arab ministers for his reaction, he stated that Israel was exercising its “right of self-defense.” Netanyahu was present for that remark and other notable statements by the seven Arab ministers in attendance, consistently agreeing with their analysis in later comments he made to me and others. This may not be normalization, but it is creating a new normal.
Fourth, while the Palestinians made clear that they do not want any “new normal” to emerge so long as nothing is happening to advance peace or alter Israel’s occupation, they lost out by boycotting the conference. Ironically, if PA officials had simply shown up, all of the Arab and European ministers would necessarily have raised Palestinian concerns, and not just in passing. Instead, the issue was just an afterthought at best, subordinated to higher-priority threats. Although the Palestinians reaffirmed their reputation as masters of defiance, they once again failed to advance their national movement—the fatal flaw of any strategy based exclusively on defiance.
Fifth, the participants showed consensus on several key Syria items. Everyone favored implementing UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which calls for ceasing hostilities, drafting a new constitution, and implementing a political transition over eighteen months. No surprise there, but I was struck by another point of consensus: that Russian and Iranian interests in Syria diverge, and that those differences can be exploited to limit Iran’s presence and perhaps even advance Resolution 2254. But I am deeply skeptical that these differences can be widened anytime soon, even if one ignores the fact that Bashar al-Assad has no intention of stepping aside, and that Moscow has shown no sign of curtailing its support for him. So long as Syria is undergoing even low-level insurgency, Russia will need Iranian/Shia boots on the ground.
These doubts do not detract from the other Warsaw takeaways. In the end, however, the conference’s true test will be whether it results in tangible European steps to take tougher action against Iran’s regional meddling. Participants discussed certain measures toward that end (e.g., universally designating all of Hezbollah as a terrorist organization rather than distinguishing between its political and military “wings”), but no conclusions were reached. It remains to be seen whether the working groups proposed in Warsaw are willing to convene soon and make progress on sensitive issues. In any case, unless Iran’s decisionmakers begin to see the costs—and not just the benefits—of foreign interference by the Qods Force and other organs, there is little prospect of the regime altering its behavior.
Dennis Ross is the counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at The Washington Institute.
Why are Leading European Countries Helping Iran?
Joshua S. Bloch
Algemeiner, Feb. 21, 2019
In an extraordinarily blunt speech at the US-hosted Middle East conference in Poland, Vice President Mike Pence lashed out at some of America’s closest allies for shielding the doomed 2015 nuclear accord with Iran. Pence accused France, Germany, and the United Kingdom of launching a new financial mechanism in the hope of evading biting US sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
The European Union provided a much-needed financial lifeline to the regime in Tehran when it set up the so-called Special Purpose Vehicle (SVP) in January — a barter system that allows Europe and Iran to trade goods and forgo the use of currency. The mechanism, Pence charged, is “an ill-advised step that will only strengthen Iran, weaken the EU, and create still more distance between Europe and the United States.”
Pence is correct in his premise. The European Union’s shameful conduct undermines bipartisan US efforts to hold Iran accountable for its illicit nuclear and non-nuclear activities. It’s also a massive slap in the face to ordinary Iranians, who want to live in peace and dignity.
Last week, Iran celebrated the 40th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. But there’s nothing to celebrate about a regime that has plunged an entire country into darkness. Forty years later, the Iranian people are still fighting the same tyrants that deny them basic human rights. The claim of moderation is nothing but an illusion for this medieval regime.
The Paris-based watchdog group Reporters Without Borders (RSF) recently revealed that Iran arrested, imprisoned, or executed at least 860 journalists in the three decades between the 1979 revolution and 2009, according to leaked Iranian justice department documents. In addition, tens of thousands of Iranian citizens — including minorities, opposition members, journalists, and individuals accused of non-political crimes — have been illegally detained, tortured, or executed by the regime.
In the struggle for fundamental freedom, one would expect the European Union — an institution founded on the principles of liberty and democracy — to stand in solidarity with the Iranian people against their oppressors. Instead, Europe has so far sent the opposite message. Lured by lucrative trade deals with Iran, policymakers across Europe’s capitals have turned a blind eye to the suffering of peaceful Iranians who are lingering in prison or have ended up in unmarked graves.
Over the last few months alone, Iran has made headlines in the Western, Israeli, and Arab press for its use of terrorism. Whether reporting on Tehran’s assassinations of political opponents on foreign soil, terror plots in Europe, the fighters and ammunitions it sent to Syria, or inference in Yemen’s brutal civil war, Iran’s behavior just keeps getting worse.
These headlines bear witness to the fact that the Islamic Republic is the top state sponsor of terrorism in the world. In fact, Iran’s notorious Revolutionary Guard Corps is the largest terror organization on the planet, even bigger than the Islamic State and al Qaeda. The regime in Tehran has also committed innumerable terrorist attacks through its terrorist proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Gaza-based Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Arab states readily acknowledge the aid that Iran gives to these terrorist groups. Speaking at the Middle East conference in Poland, the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates were united in their condemnation for Iran. Saudi’s foreign affairs minister, Adel Al-Jubeir, said that Iran’s belligerent activities destabilize the region, thus making Israeli-Palestinian peace impossible to achieve. “Look at the Palestinians: Who is supporting Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and undercutting the Palestinian Authority? Iran,” he said, going on to cite conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, where Iran also plays a malignant role.
Meanwhile, Bahraini Foreign Minister Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa noted, “We grew up talking about the Israel-Palestine issue as the most important issue.” However, he said, “then, at a later stage, we saw a bigger challenge, we saw a more toxic one — in fact the [most] toxic one in our history — that came from the Islamic Republic.”
With the launching of the SVP and Europe’s continued efforts to salvage the 2015 nuclear accord, Iran has gained more time to surge forward in its nuclear pursuits, while retaining the dangerous infrastructure needed to stockpile more uranium and continuing to finance its deadly foreign adventurism.
It is truly shameful that European states continue to evade US sanctions as the regime in Tehran continues its march toward nuclear weapons, threatens its neighbors, denies the Holocaust, and suffocates its people.
Iran already possesses ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The Islamic Republic’s ongoing defiance of the world directly threatens US security interests and the security of regional allies. It is now up to America to say, “no more,” and for Europe to stop shielding a murderous regime.
Nine Months Later, Trump’s Iran Deal-Withdrawal is a Clear Success Fred Fleitz
National Review, Feb. 7, 2019
Despite howls of protest by the Left, the foreign-policy establishment, and European leaders, and contrary to misleading assessments by U.S. intelligence agencies, it is now clear that President Trump’s decision last May to withdraw the United States from the controversial 2015 nuclear deal with Iran (the JCPOA) was the right call and is a huge policy success.
Trump’s JCPOA withdrawal did not lead to war with Iran, as many critics predicted. Instead, Iran is far more isolated than it was when President Trump assumed office. The United States has worked to unite its Middle East allies, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia, against Iran and, in Warsaw this month, will co-chair an international conference with Poland on the threat from Iran. Iran’s economy is under unprecedented pressure thanks to reimposed U.S. sanctions, especially oil sanctions, with negative 1.5 percent growth in 2018 and an expected negative 3.6 percent growth in 2019. Iran’s current year-on-year inflation rate through last month was 40 percent.
Some Trump critics predicted that any effort by the president to reimpose U.S. sanctions lifted by the JCPOA would have little effect, since other parties to the agreement — in particular the EU, Germany, France, and the U.K. — would not follow suit. But numerous European companies have resisted pressure from their governments to defy reimposed U.S. sanctions. On January 31, European leaders announced a special finance facility to help European firms skirt U.S. sanctions on Iran, but that initiative is months behind schedule and few experts believe it will work.
Instead, as a result of reimposed U.S. sanctions, European airlines Air France, British Airways, and KLM ended service to Iran last year. European companies Total, Siemens, and Volkswagen also withdrew from Iran, along with U.S. companies GE, Boeing, and Honeywell and the Russian oil firm Lukoil. In November, Germany’s Bundesbank changed its rules so it could reject an Iranian request to withdraw 300 million euros from Hamburg-based trade bank Europäische-Iranische Handelsbank, to protect the central bank’s relationships with institutions in “third countries.” That is, the United States.
Before the U.S. withdrawal, JCPOA critics made strong arguments about the accord’s weaknesses, especially Iran’s refusal to allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors access to military sites. The lone exception is the Parchin military base, self-inspected by Iranians. There the IAEA obtained evidence of covert nuclear-weapons work. There were other credible reports of Iranian cheating before the U.S. withdrawal, including several from German intelligence agencies. Senators Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, and David Perdue raised Iranian noncompliance and cheating on the JCPOA in a July 2017 letter to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.
JCPOA supporters rejected those criticisms, noting that the IAEA repeatedly declared Iran to be in compliance with the nuclear agreement. However, they refused to admit that the IAEA reached its compliance findings by claiming that Iranian violations were not “material breaches” and by not asking to inspect Iranian military facilities (which Tehran has declared off limits) even though they are the likely locations of covert nuclear-weapons work. [To read the full article, click the following Link – Ed.]
The Iranian Modus Operandi
Lt. Col. Dr. Dany Shohan
BESA, Dec. 7, 2018
Iran considers Israel an archenemy, and it is a highly sophisticated and clever antagonist. While in Lebanon and Syria, the rooting out of the Iranian threat is extremely complicated, it is an achievable goal in the Gaza
Strip (with Egyptian assistance). Iran has employed a consistent pattern in its long battle against Israel. In January 2000, a senior IDF intelligence officer told the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Security Committee: “Consequent to the ongoing peace process between Israel and Syria, there is now, already, an appreciable Iranian-induced escalation of Hezbollah activity in Lebanon against Israel. And along with the progress of the Israeli-Syrian peace process, Iran will increase its terror activities against Israel, and there will be an elevation in sabotage events.” This is what indeed happened.
On October 27, 2018, while intensive contacts were being led by Egypt and the UN to reach an arrangement
between Israel and Hamas, Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, Head of the International Media Branch at the IDF Spokesperson’s office, said (relying on IDF intelligence) that Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) had delivered heavy barrages of dozens of rockets from the Gaza Strip while working “under guidance, instructions, and incentives from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Quds Force, based in Damascus.” In other words, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force directly ordered Islamic Jihad and orchestrated the rocket fire. And while Hamas is regarded as responsible for all violence and provocations stemming from Gaza, by way of its control of the Strip since 2007, IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Ronen Manelis pointed out that “Islamic Jihad did not wait to get a green light from Hamas” to fire the rockets. Its activator was Iran, which precluded the necessity for Hamas approval.
Back in 1982 (just three years after the Islamic revolution), in response to the alliance formed in South Lebanon between Israel and the South Lebanon Army, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) conceived and established the Shiite group Hezbollah to violently harass the IDF and South Lebanon Army forces who were trying to maintain that peaceful alliance. Hezbollah troops were organized and trained by a contingent of 1,500 Revolutionary Guards who arrived from Iran with the permission of the Syrian government, which was occupying Lebanon at the time. Fostered by the IRGC, Hezbollah gained power and influence to become the predominant entity in Lebanon and a serious threat to Israel.
Last year, Hezbollah, together with the IRGC, formed the Golan Liberation Brigade in Syria, an umbrella organization of Shiite militias that reportedly has many fighters at its disposal who can be activated on the Israeli-Syrian border.
Thirty years after the founding of Hezbollah, in 2012, the Shiite terrorist faction Sabireen was established by the IRGC in Gaza. Its full name is “Harakat al-Sabireen Nasran li-Filastin,” or “The Movement of the Patient Ones for the Liberation of Palestine.” Tehran created Sabireen on the heels of the November 2012 truce between Hamas and Israel that followed more than a week of fierce fighting…. [To read the full article, click the following Link – Ed.]
On Topic Links
The Iranian Land Bridge in the Levant: The Return of Territory in Geopolitics: Fabrice Balanche, TELOScope, Friday, September 14, 2018 — With the re-establishment of Bashar al-Assad’s power in Syria, the strengthening of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and finally the political and military victory of pro-Iranian forces in Iraq, it is clear that an Iranian axis now prevails in the Levant.
The Iranians and the Russians Are Not Natural Allies: Dore Gold, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, Feb. 19, 2019. Podcast — Jerusalem Center President Dore Gold spoke at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya on Feb. 12, 2019: Dore Gold: I think there is a very strong understanding between Israel and Russia about Israel’s freedom of action in Syria. At the same time, I think that there have been very difficult challenges and you’ve talked about the illusions that […]
The American Intelligence Threat Assessment on Iran’s Nuclear Program: Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, February 12, 2019 — When presenting the American Intelligence Community annual threat assessment to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on January 29, 2019, Dan Coats, Director of National Intelligence, referred to Iran’s nuclear program.
Chehabi Speaks on Panel at FDD on Islamic Republic of Iran: FDD, Feb. 13, 2019, Video — Houchang E. Chehabi, Professor of International Relations and History at the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies, spoke as part of a February 11, 2019 panel at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) in Washington D.C. on the Islamic Republic of Iran
