China’s Emerging Middle Eastern Kingdom
Michael Doran and Peter Rough
Tablet, Aug. 2, 2020American policymakers have long assumed that Chinese and American goals in the Middle East are largely complementary. Beijing, so the prevailing wisdom holds, is fixated on commerce, with a special emphasis on oil and gas. “China’s strategy in the Middle East is driven by its economic interests,” a former senior official in the Obama administration testified last year before Congress. “China … does not appear interested in substantially deepening its diplomatic or security activities there.”According to this reigning view, China adopts a position of neutrality toward political and military conflicts, because taking sides would make enemies who might then restrict China’s access to markets.This oft-repeated shibboleth ignores clear signs that China is very actively engaged in a hard-power contest with the United States—a contest that the Chinese occasionally acknowledge and are capable of winning. In 2016, Xi Jinping toured the Middle East for the first time in his capacity as president of the People’s Republic of China, visiting Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran. Chinese propaganda hailed the trip as a milestone. The Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a white paper on its Arab policy, the first of its kind. “We will deepen China-Arab military cooperation and exchange,” the paper read. “We will … deepen cooperation on weapons, equipment and various specialized technologies, and carry out joint military exercises.”The following year, in 2017, the Chinese navy opened a naval base in Djibouti, the first overseas base it has ever established—a tacit renunciation of the traditional Chinese credo of noninterventionism. Djibouti sits on the southern end of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which guards the passage to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal from the Gulf of Aden. On the northern end, only 18 miles away, lies Yemen.China is advancing on the Middle East with ruthless determination, because the region is of more vital interest to China than any other, aside from the Western Pacific. Indeed, China is actively working to oust the United States from the Middle East—a reality that the American strategic community would overwhelmingly prefer not to recognize, but one that is nonetheless becoming glaringly obvious.Don’t believe us? Ask the Uighurs, the brutalized people of Xinjiang province, which the Chinese government is actively colonizing by moving in millions of ethnic Han Chinese. The lucky among the Uighurs, who number some 11 million in total, are trapped in an inescapable web of surveillance and oppression. The unlucky ones, numbering perhaps 1 million, are interned in ideological indoctrination camps where they are exploited as slave labor, tortured, and, according to recent reports, subjected to forced sterilizations.
What motive can China have for its ongoing torment of a small ethnic minority, which brings Beijing an ongoing avalanche of negative publicity in the West? Xi’s policy flows, the experts tell us, from Beijing’s fear of terrorist and separatist movements among the Uighurs, who are a Turkic Muslim people with ethnic and religious ties to their neighbors and to Turkey. Whatever the validity of this analysis, it misses the strategic vector, which again points directly to the Middle East. … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
______________________________________________________
Israel and the Sino-Iranian Alliance
Caroline B. Glick
Times of Israel, July 17, 2020
When Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Teheran in 2016, most observers dismissed the significance of the move. The notion that Beijing would wreck its relations with America, the largest economy and most powerful global superpower, in favor of an alliance with Iran, the world’s greatest state sponsor of terrorism was, on its face, preposterous.
But despite the ridiculousness of the idea, concern grew about Sino-Iranian ties as Iranian political leaders and military commanders beat a path to China’s door. Now, in the midst of the global recession caused by China’s export of the coronavirus, the preposterous has become reality.
Following weeks of feverish rumors, Iran and China have concluded a strategic accord. Last weekend, The New York Times reported on the contents of a final draft of the agreement.
In its opening line, China and Iran describe themselves as “two ancient Asian cultures, two partners in the sectors of trade, economy, politics, culture, and security with a similar outlook and many mutual bilateral and multilateral interests.”
Henceforth, they, “will consider one another strategic partners.”
Substantively, the deal involves Iran supplying China with oil at below-market prices for the next 25 years and China investing $400 billion in Iran over the same period. China committed to expanding its presence in the Iranian banking and telecommunication sectors. Among dozens of infrastructure projects, China will construct and operate ports and train lines. China will integrate Iran into its 5G internet network and its GPS system.
The implications of the deal are clear. China has opted to ignore US sanctions. Beijing clearly believes the economic and diplomatic price it will pay for doing so will be smaller than the price the US will pay for the diminishment of its position as the ultimate arbiter of global markets.
For Iran, China is a life raft saving it from total economic collapse under the weight of US economic sanctions.
The Sino-Iranian pact is also a military accord. According to the New York Times report, the agreement commits the sides to intensify their joint military exercises. Since 2014, China and Iran have carried out three joint military exercises, the most recent one, a naval exercise that took place in December 2019. Russia also participated. … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
______________________________________________________
Cold War with China Does Not Involve Israel – Best Keep it that Way
Amotz Asa-El
Jerusalem Post, July 23, 2020
‘If you see kingdoms provoking each other – expect the Messiah’s footprint,” said Talmudic sage Rabbi Elazar bar Avina (Bereshit Raba 42:4).
The subsequent 17 centuries taught us Jews that when superpowers spar – as China and the US now do – the last thing we can afford is to expect miracles. Instead, we should expect reality, in all its ugliness, and focus on avoiding such a duel’s sparks.
Reality, as this week’s events made plain, is an intensifying conflict between China and the US, a titanic collision whose ricochets reach everywhere, including the Middle East.
Washington’s order Tuesday to shut the Chinese consulate in Houston was no whim. The American charge, that Chinese envoys tried to steal scientific research, is part of the State Department’s accusation that China is conducting “massive illegal spying and influence operations,” and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s allegation that China is out to harm the American economy and workforce.
The escalating war of words, and the trade war that fuels it, were compounded last spring with an American travel ban on academics involved in the Chinese defense establishment.
Things are now set to escalate further, as Beijing is expected to close one of America’s consulates in China, while Washington reportedly weighs a travel ban on the Chinese Communist Party’s members, meaning the 270 million people who populate China’s every corridor of power.
In short, what began festively with Richard Nixon’s “ping pong diplomacy” has made way for a diplomacy of fencing, wrestling and boxing that pits Israel’s strategic patron against its most dynamic trade partner.
It is in this already daunting context that Israel’s Chinese predicament is now compounded by alarming reports of a possible alliance between Beijing and Tehran.
THE DEAL, according to a New York Times report, is about a $400 billion commitment to build over 25 years nearly 100 airports, seaports, metro systems, fast trains, and telecoms infrastructure, in return for which Iran would supply China with oil at discounted prices.
What, then, should Israel make of this, and how should it treat a China that, besides locking horns with America, might soon threaten Israeli interests, in broad daylight and directly?
Well, the first thing Israel must configure is the narrowness of its maneuver space between Washington and Beijing.
Yes, Israeli-Chinese trade is growing exponentially, so much so that between 2014 and 2019 alone it nearly doubled, from $8.8b. to $15.2b. And yes, China has been deeply and blessedly involved in Israeli infrastructure projects, from the Karmiel railway and the new Haifa seaport to the Tel Aviv subway, while Israel’s major universities established major academic centers in China.
Still, when Israel signed a deal to sell China strategic aircraft, America put its foot down, Israel canceled the deal, and China charged – and obtained – a $350 million cancellation fee, all of which added up to one of Israel’s worst-ever diplomatic fiascoes. … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
______________________________________________________
The CPEC Challenge and the India-China Standoff: An Opportunity for War or Peace?
Dr Anil Kumar Lal
Times of India, Aug. 9, 2020
(The dynamics of the China-Pakistan-Economic Corridor (CPEC) are already causing unprecedented turbulence in the Himalayas along the India-China Line of Actual Control (LAC) as can be seen during the current standoff. China should calculate India’s strength and give diplomacy a chance by inviting India again to join the CPEC project. They need to offer a comprehensive ‘give and take’ package for ushering peace and stability in this region coupled with the reduction of trust deficit through a ‘Win-Win’ strategic treaty that can catapult their mutual rise).
Part 1: The CPEC and its Implications on Regional Geopolitics and Geostrategy.
1. A military war between India-China will cause destruction on both sides, as China’s net assessment should also confirm the same. It will be a clash of wills of two nuclear-powered states with almost conventional parity due to the added advantage to the defender deployed on the formidable Himalayas. Instead, the present standoff along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) could become a real opportunity for both the big powers to recaliberate and create a ‘win-win’ equation for both the countries. This requires an open and ‘Out of the Box’ politico-military Initiative as discussed below.
2. History: Shared a Common Destiny. A little peep into history should set the stage for the solution. Both countries belong to ancient civilizations and have been culturally intertwined. The past of both the countries has been chequered with foreign domination. Both nations had their difficulties. A few historical facts, needs being recalled.
At one time, even Tibet ruled a part of China during the Common Era (CA 763). The Tibetan army had seized their capital at Chang’an. During that time, the Tang Chinese appreciated Tibetan power and paid tribute to Tibet. The Mongols under Genghis Khan Exploits, (1279-1368) had also enslaved parts of China. The Japanese also had captured parts of China in 1895 and even later, on July 16, 1937, when Japan declared war on China.
Similarly, India during the Ashoka era (268 to 232 BC) had a vast empire but the Muslim invaders from 11th to the 18th century subjugated India. Thereafter, the British ruled until India became Independent in 1947. Both histories reflect on their deprivation and subjugation. Nevertheless, they have a common thread of ancient wisdom. For instance, Mahabharata was fought about 3102 BCE. From there originated the fundamental philosophy of life and the need for Dharma and morality.
This battle also laid the tenets of warfare spoken in the words of the philosopher and warrior, Lord Krishna himself. The famous Chinese scholar and philosopher, Confucius was born about two thousand years later in 551 BC. His Analects known as Confucianism anchored around personal and government morality. Similarly, Sun Tzu, (who wrote the art of war) was his contemporary and was born in 544 BC.
Both followed similar thoughts as propagated in the Mahabharata. The contents and sense on human affairs and warfare as expressed by Confucius and Sun Tzu are almost akin to the versus of the Gita. There is enough evidence to suggest that both Confucius and Sun Tzu were thus inspired by its wisdom. Now coming to the present 21 st millennium. Both nations, instead of adapting, to western culture have always sustained their traditional/ Eastern way of life. Therefore, in a way, both India and China have till now shared a common destiny. … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
______________________________________________________
For Further Reference:
What World War II Teaches Us When It Comes to Standing Up to China?: Salvatore Babones, The National Interest, Aug. 10, 2020 — The Reductio ad Hitlerum is the distinctive twenty-first-century addition to Aristotle’s classic list of thirteen logical fallacies. It occurs when an argument becomes so heated that one party compares the positions of the other to those of Nazi Germany.
China Has Doubled Its Fighter Jets on India’s Border: Michael Peck, Forbes, Aug. 10, 2020 — China has doubled its fighter jets on India’s disputed northern border, according to American analysts.
What Now?: A ChinaFile Conversation, ChinaFile,Aug. 5, 2020 — The past several months have been a particularly volatile period in U.S.-China relations. After last month’s closures of the Chinese consulate in Houston and the American consulate in Chengdu, we asked contributions to give us their assessments of recent U.S. policy toward China and where they think relations between the two countries are going and ought to go. —The Editors
China’s Torture of the Uyghurs Will Usher in More Islamist Terrorism | Opinion: Bradley Martin, Newsweek, July 24, 2020 — Earlier this week, shocking drone footage reportedly showing Chinese police herding hundreds of shackled and blindfolded Uyghur Muslim men onto trains surfaced on social media. Bradley Martin is a former CIJR intern, and current member of the CIJR Executive Board.
A New Direction for India-U.S. Ties: Subramanian Swamy, The Hindu, Aug. 10, 2020 –– The United States under the leadership of President Franklin D. Roosevelt during the early 1940s once pressed Britain’s Prime Minister Winston Churchill to free India and co-opt India as a formal ally in World War II.
