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Daily Briefing: Britain Heads to the Polls: Results May Signal Decisive Outcome on Brexit (December 10,2019)

 

Yukiya Amano with Boris Johnson in London – 2018 (Source: Wikipedia)

Table of Contents:

A British Test for the Populist Revolution Gerard Baker, WSJ, Dec. 6, 2019

This May Be Brexit Britain’s Finest Hour:  Eoin Drea, Politico, Dec. 9, 2019

The Sickening Reality of Labour Party Jew-Hatred:  Melanie Phillips, MelaniePhillips.com, Dec. 9, 2019

______________________________________________________A British Test for the Populist Revolution
Gerard Baker
WSJ, Dec. 6, 2019

A country that likes to consider itself the most stable of democracies, a model of government typified by steady, pragmatic, get-things-done-with-no-drama progress, has descended in a few years into southern European-style political chaos.

Next Thursday, the British go to the polls in a nationwide vote for the fourth time in less than five years. The result could produce the U.K.’s fourth prime minister in a little over three years. If the opposition to Boris Johnson’s incumbent Conservatives can beat the odds and win on Thursday, the Battle of Brexit, which has paralyzed politics for 3½ years, is likely to be prolonged for a while yet, with the prospect of at least one more national vote in 2020. It’s possible that one outcome could be the eventual breakup of the kingdom itself.

The turmoil unleashed by the referendum of 2016, when a majority voted to leave the European Union, has done damage not only to the country’s reputation but to the fabric of its own cohesion and morale. The bulldog spirit of Winston Churchill leading a nation in mortal peril, the unyielding determination of Margaret Thatcher leading a country out of economic calamity have given way to an age of politics that seems to have been scripted and performed by the Marx Brothers.

Thursday presents a chance to draw a line under all this. The election should—there’s no guarantee—signal a decisive outcome on Brexit. While any result is possible, one of two is most probable. Mr. Johnson could win an outright majority in the House of Commons—which polls currently suggest is likely—allowing him to secure Brexit legislation that will see the U.K. leave the EU early in the new year. Alternatively, some kind of ad hoc coalition of Brexit-resisters could form, led probably by Labour’s left-wing leader, Jeremy Corbyn, and would almost certainly introduce a second referendum next year that would either cancel Brexit entirely or see some softer version enacted some time in 2020.

But this election—and the political forces shaping it—is about much more than that. It’s a defining moment in the development of modern Western politics, a potentially pivotal event of the age of populism, with ramifications that go beyond British shores.

A Conservative Party that has long stood for neoliberal economics and social tolerance is becoming a party of economic populism and nationalism.

If Mr. Johnson wins on Thursday, he will do so at the head of a Conservative Party whose voting base will have been radically transformed. A party that has for most of the past half-century stood foremost for neoliberal economics, allied to a liberal approach to social issues such as same-sex marriage and racial integration, is becoming a party of economic populism and nationalism. A party whose core supporters were in large part highly educated, economically successful achievers, open to high levels of immigration, free trade and global integration, is becoming a party whose base will include huge numbers of the less advantaged and less well-educated, who have lost ground in an age of rising inequality and who support protectionism, tight restrictions on immigration and the primacy of national sovereignty.

“We are seeing a realignment of Conservative politics. By backing Brexit, Boris Johnson is attracting working-class voters who are more socially conservative, who want government to be tough on crime and immigration, and who lean to the right on other social issues,” says Matthew Goodwin, professor of politics at the University of Kent and co-author of a book on the new global politics, “National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy.” … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
______________________________________________________

This May Be Brexit Britain’s Finest Hour
Eoin Drea
Politico, Dec. 9, 2019

In Europe, it’s common knowledge that the United Kingdom is falling apart.

Perhaps it was former Prime Minister Theresa May’s excruciating speech at the Tory Party Conference in 2017, where the falling stage dressing seemed to sum up Britain’s future after Brexit. Or maybe it was all of those late nights of voting in Westminster, where nobody could agree on any type of Brexit, or all that chatter about whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson would go to jail for ignoring legislation that would avoid a no-deal Brexit.

On this side of the Channel, these events have been consumed with a Meghan-and-Harry type fascination. Britain, viewed from the Continent, looks to be on a slow and steady decline, losing itself further and further down the Brexit rabbit hole. Europeans like to mock Brexiteer mantras such as “taking back control” and glibly assume Brexit will bring about economic contraction, social unrest, an independent Scotland and even (God forbid) a united Ireland.

Britain will be well positioned to carve out a global niche as a good location for business — irrespective of its future trading relationship with the EU.

But Europe’s view of Brexit Britain has been biased by Westminster’s political weakness over the past few years. What the parliamentary turmoil has obscured is the fact that Britain, true to its slogans and despite its Brexit stumbles, will all but certainly emerge from the Brexit process able to pursue its global ambitions.

As a flexible, innovative, culturally open and highly deregulated (by Continental standards) society, Britain will be well positioned to carve out a global niche as a good location for business — irrespective of its future trading relationship with the EU.

And contrary to much Continental derision, Britain has both the financial means and the governance ability to successful reinvent itself as a global trading powerhouse. To a large extent, it already performs this role within the EU. With manageable debt and a very low ratio of public spending relative to its economy, Britain is well placed to dramatically increase public investment — as both the Conservatives and Labour are promising to do — to help offset the chaos of Brexit’s painful birth.

Brussels’ underestimation of Britain’s abilities to adapt and succeed outside of the EU has also been its fatal flaw in Brexit negotiations since 2016.

The EU’s narrow, legalistic focus on protecting the single market at all costs is based on a misunderstanding of the British economy. It assumes that Britain — based on all the obvious economic costs — will ultimately seek the closest possible trading relationship with the EU in order to preserve its existing trade with Europe. … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
______________________________________________________

Opinion: U.K. Elections Could Be the Beginning of the End of the EU
Peter Morici
Marketplace, Dec. 9, 2019

In Thursday’s elections, Boris Johnson has a decent shot at winning a workable majority in Parliament to pull the U.K. out of the European Union. This could be a turning point for Europe—rather than enabling consolidation of the continental bloc, Brexit will provide the contrast that blows it apart.

The Conservative Party is running on a platform to push through a transition agreement to leave the European Customs Union and accomplish simple free trade. The Labour Manifesto—offering yet another referendum and a socialist platform to tax the wealthy, re-nationalize rail, telecom and other industries,

aggressive carbon-neutral economy initiatives, and more social spending—appears further left than the British electorate.

Johnson’s chances hinge on flipping traditional Labour strongholds in the North and Midlands jolted by globalization, immigration and the EU progressive agenda. Forces driving populism and nationalism in places like Poland and Hungary appear to advantage Johnson—even if voters don’t adhere to his apparent vision of a post-Brexit Singapore on the Thames.

The eurozone suffers economic stagnation. Growing about 1% annually, it has little room for additional monetary stimulus after years of negative interest rates and massive European Central Bank government-bond purchases. Eurozone rules for national budget deficits preclude additional fiscal stimulus in Spain, France, Italy and Greece, which average 12% unemployment.
If these economies had their own currencies, they could devalue to boost exports and spend more on education and infrastructure to offset Germany’s perennially large budget and trade surpluses.

Europe lacks the building blocks for a common currency. These include continental bank regulation and deposit insurance, European taxing authority to transfer resources for social services and the like from richer to poorer states—as Washington does from New York to Mississippi—and a fluid cross-border labor market enabled by a common language and homogenous educational system.

U.S. state education departments and universities may control primary, secondary and college curriculums but broad consensus applies to what a third or 10th grader should know and the syllabus for freshman economics. In Europe, national variations are profound.

Sixty percent of French college students flunk out the first year. Traveling in Europe, I am struck by how many college students in poorer countries major in subjects like tourism. None of that will permit Europe to develop what it sorely needs—a Silicon Valley and startups that will one day rival Microsoft MSFT, +0.28% , Apple AAPL, +0.96%  , and other U.S. and Chinese technology behemoths.

The continent’s industrial heartland, Germany, is terribly dependent on an automobile industry that lags U.S., Japanese and Chinese competitors in the development of electric vehicles—those are forecasted to be 56% of vehicles produced in 2030. The German system of union and government participation in corporate decision making slows business and worker responses to disruptions imposed by transitions to a carbon-free and more digital economy.

Near term, the U.K. needs free-trade access with the continent to keep its manufacturing going, but it is not so invested in the internal combustion engine. Britain’s future, like America’s, is tied to its formidable financial sector and high-tech activities. … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
______________________________________________________

The Sickening Reality of Labour Party Jew-Hatred
Melanie Phillips
MelaniePhillips.com, Dec. 9, 2019

The Jewish Labour Movement’s submission to the inquiry by the Equality and Human Rights Commission into Labour party antisemitism has been leaked. The document, which shows in detail how Labour has become institutionally antisemitic, has been described by the party grandee Lord Falconer as “utterly damning”.

The document, linked here, needs to be read in its entirety to grasp the full horror of the depravity and derangement over Israel and the Jewish people with which the Labour party has been consumed. But here are some extracts:
“… Antisemitic abuse is now a common experience for Jews attempting to attend CLP and BLP meetings… Examples of these include being called “a Tory Jew”, “a child killer”, “Zio scum”, being told that “That he’s good with money”, “to shut the f*** up Jew”, “that Hitler was right” and being threatened with physical violence.

“… At one meeting, a member claimed that, “The only reason we have prostitutes in Seven Sisters is because of the Jews”. No-one is said to have challenged this statement.

“… At the 2017 Party conference, one member describes how he was leafletting for an NEC-backed rule change that would prohibit all types of discrimination within the Labour Party. As a result of his open affiliation with JLM, members called him a racist and said that they would not support the change because JLM was “financed and controlled by the Israeli government”. At a meeting later that day, he was recognised. Audience members shouted and humiliated him. A neighbouring audience member tried to force his phone out of his hand and other members, including Jackie Walker15, shouted at him to hand his phone over. The chair of the meeting did nothing to intervene. The Respondent was only 16 years old at the time.

“… At the 2018 Labour party conference, the room was reported to erupt in applause when a delegate on the stage said: “As the prospect of a Jeremy Corbyn-led government gets ever closer I’m afraid the campaign is going to get ratcheted up, the list of people being denounced for being antisemitic; is going to stretch all the way from here to Jerusalem.” That same year, one member described how he shared a breakfast table with two delegates who had not met before. They quickly agreed that Jews were “subhuman”, “didn’t deserve to be allowed to define what constitutes antisemitism” and should “be grateful we don’t make them eat bacon for breakfast every day”.

“ … Online abuse submitted as screenshots and/or described to the Commission use the full range of antisemitic tropes. They accuse Jews of: being right-wing; controlling the banks and media; being controlled by Israel; being connected to Mossad, the CIA or M15; being connected to Isis or 9/11. Posts also: deny the Holocaust; draw equivalences between Jews and Nazi; use references to pigs and pork to insult Jews; hold all Jews responsible for the policies of the Israeli government; and refer to Jews as traitors, or in one example “bent-nosed manipulative liars’.  … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
 ______________________________________________________

For Further Reference:

BBC Debate: Corbyn Hits Out at Johnson’s ‘Racist Remarks’: Rowena Mason and Kate Proctor, The Guardian, Dec. 6, 2019 — Jeremy Corbyn accused Boris Johnson of having made “racist remarks” as the pair clashed over Islamophobia and antisemitism in their parties in a crucial head-to-head debate less than a week before polling day.

UK Chief Rabbi: What Will Be the Fate of Jews if Labour ‘Poison’ Comes to Power?:  Times of Israel, Nov. 26, 2019 — Britain’s Chief Rabbi Ephraim Mirvis took an unprecedented stand against the Labour party ahead of next month’s election, urging voters to see the “new poison” that has taken root in the party, and expressing fear for the fate of Jews in the country should Jeremy Corbyn become prime minister.

The Chief Rabbi’s Intervention in Britain’s General Election:  Melanie Phillips, Melaniephillips.com, Nov. 26, 2019 — Much of the reaction to the Chief Rabbi’s dramatic and unprecedented intervention in Britain’s general election campaign has proved the truth and importance of what he has said.

Denying Anti-Semitism and Terrorism:  Rabbi Benjamin Blech, Aish.com, Dec. 9, 2019 — Picture this scene: a Saudi Royal Air Force officer hosts a dinner party for three of his countrymen. As part of the festivities they watch mass shooting videos.

If Only “None of the Above” was an Option in the UK Election Terry Glavin, National Post, Dec. 4, 2019 – – None of the above then.  That seems to be the underlying sentiment animating most of the UK’s 46 million voters as next Thursday’s national election approaches.
 
 
 

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