Trump Denies Aid to Egypt: Sean Keeley, American Interest, Aug. 23, 2017— On the eve of Jared Kushner’s visit to Egypt, President Trump delivered an unpleasant surprise to one of his friendliest allies in the Middle East.
Egypt Resumes a Leadership Role: Itamar Rabinovich, Times of Israel, Aug. 21, 2017 — One of the important byproducts of the recent turn of events in the Syrian crisis has been the role taken by Egypt.
Israel’s Empty Embassy in Cairo: Ofir Winter, INSS, July 3, 2017— Normalization between Israel and Egypt has always been limited…
MB Groups Increasingly Open in Endorsing Anti-Sisi Violence: John Rossomando, IPT News, Aug. 16, 2017 A group of exiled Morsi-era Muslim Brotherhood politicians based in Istanbul has posted on Facebook a blueprint for overthrowing Egypt's military regime.
Egypt Angered by US Aid Cut Over Human Rights Concerns: Washington Post, Aug. 24, 2017
Egypt’s Leader Makes a Risky Bet on the Healing Power of Economic Pain: Yaroslav Trofimov, Wall Street Journal, Aug. 7, 2017
Egypt Acts to Preserve Jewish Heritage: Rami Galal, Al-Monitor, August 23, 2017
Egypt Joins the Burkini Battle: Jacob Goff Klein, Jerusalem Post, Aug. 8, 2017
Sean Keeley
American Interest, Aug. 23, 2017
On the eve of Jared Kushner’s visit to Egypt, President Trump delivered an unpleasant surprise to one of his friendliest allies in the Middle East. The New York Times reports: “The Trump administration on Tuesday denied Egypt $96 million in aid and delayed $195 million in military funding because of concerns over Egypt’s human rights record and its cozy relationship with North Korea…Asked if Egypt’s robust relationship with North Korea played a role in Tuesday’s action, a State Department official would say only that issues of concern have been raised with Cairo, but refused to provide details about the talks.”
On the face of it, the decision to withhold aid from Egypt is a striking departure from the Trump Administration’s pattern of behavior. For one, Trump has always enjoyed a chummy relationship with Sisi, who was one of the first foreign leaders to take him seriously as a candidate (they met in New York last September), and whom Trump has showered with praise and promises of support. Until now, Trump has demonstrated no unease about Sisi’s sorry human rights record, nor shown any interest in prioritizing humanitarian concerns in his dealings with allies. In fact, his Administration has established a clear pattern of fast-tracking weapons transfers or aid deliveries that Obama had temporarily suspended over humanitarian concerns (just ask the Saudis and Thais.)
Has Trump suddenly acquired a conscience about human rights and a newfound concern over Cairo’s repressive treatment of NGOs? That scenario is unlikely—and the Times’ theory that this is really about North Korea deserves further scrutiny.
Egypt has long had a dubious record when it comes to North Korea. The two countries have a history of exchanges of arms and expertise going back to the 1970s, when Cairo began selling Pyongyang missiles and North Korean pilots helped train their Egyptian counterparts. By some accounts, a version of that cozy relationship continues covertly today. A troubling UN investigation earlier this year uncovered “hitherto unreported” trade between Pyongyang and countries in the Middle East and North Africa, with sensitive exchanges including air defense systems and satellite-guided missiles. In several cases, Egyptian companies were implicated in those transactions—a finding consistent with the claim of a former DPRK official that Egypt is the “hub” of Pyongyang’s Middle Eastern arms trade.
Those findings may help explain why, in a July phone call, President Trump raised the North Korean issue with Sisi. According to the White House readout, Trump “stressed the need for all countries to fully implement U.N. Security Council resolutions on North Korea, stop hosting North Korean guest workers, and stop providing economic or military benefits to North Korea.” That is a message that the Administration has been delivering to all countries it suspects of noncompliance with the North Korean sanctions regime: from heavy hitters like China and Russia to minor enablers like the ASEAN countries.
And if Trump wanted to punish Cairo for failing to enforce sanctions, withholding aid must have looked like a tempting method. The money in question had already been held up by the Obama Administration, so declining to release it is a less antagonistic move than actively levying sanctions on Egypt. And by publicly conditioning the release of that money on human rights progress, Trump has already earned some early plaudits from some of his staunchest critics, including Senator John McCain, who has been an outspoken opponent of Sisi’s authoritarianism and the new NGO law.
This is not to say that the decision to squeeze Egypt is necessarily wise or risk-free. The move may have already cost Trump some goodwill with Sisi: after news of the decision came out, the Foreign Ministry initially canceled a meeting with Kushner in an apparent snub. The Egyptians eventually allowed Kushner a sit-down with Sisi, but they are clearly not happy: the foreign ministry said the decision “[reflected] poor judgment of the strategic relationship that ties the two countries” and could have “negative implications” on cooperation going forward.
Among other things, that could be a reference to Egypt’s help on the Israel-Paliestine dispute, the very issue that Kushner was in Egypt to discuss. Cairo is reportedly on the cusp of negotiating a deal that would reopen the border with Gaza, allow much-needed humanitarian aid to pass through, and (in all likelihood) empower Mohammed Dahlan, a Palestinian leader more conducive to U.S. and Israeli interests than the lame duck Mahmoud Abbas. Given Egypt’s crucial role in mediating these talks, alienating Cairo is a risky proposition.
But that only strengthens the argument that the Trump Administration would not have jeopardized that relationship over human rights alone. Concerns about Sisi’s repression may well have influenced the aid decision on the margins, but they were more likely convenient justifications disguising Trump’s primary motive for punishing Egypt. After all, the North Korean crisis has been Trump’s top foreign policy priority, an issue that has consumed much of his Administration’s diplomatic energy as it seeks to increase the economic pressure on the regime. And just as Trump invoked humanitarian reasons to justify his airstrike on Syria (a move that was also about sending North Korea a message), he may now be doing the same to pressure Pyongyang via Cairo.
EGYPT RESUMES A LEADERSHIP ROLE
Itamar Rabinovich
Times of Israel, Aug. 21, 2017
One of the important byproducts of the recent turn of events in the Syrian crisis has been the role taken by Egypt. For decades Egypt had been the principal actor in inter-Arab relations. It lost that role several years ago due to the convulsions of domestic Egyptian politics and to the decline of Egypt’s weight and impact owing to the rise of Iran and Turkey in Middle Eastern regional politics, and to the increased influence of the rich Arab states in the Gulf.
The changing tide of the Syrian civil war has given Egypt both the impetus and the opportunity to take the initiative and play a leading role in the crisis that has torn the Arab world since March 2011. Bashar Assad’s declaration of victory was premature at the time — he controls some forty percent of the national territory while the opposition still controls important strongholds — but the capture of Aleppo was in fact a turning point and, with Russian and Iranian support, Assad and his regime are steadily increasing the area under their sway. The sense of an unstoppable march by this coalition is enhanced by the drift of Trump’s Syrian policy. It is now clear that after several statements and actions indicating a determination to stop Iran’s advance in the region and to do it in the Syrian arena, Washington is now focused narrowly on destroying ISIS in Syria (and Iraq) and has resolved to act in coordination with Russia to stabilize the situation in Syria.
This state of affairs is a cause for concern in several Middle Eastern capitals. Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Jordan and Egypt (the Sunni bloc) are alarmed by the prospect of an Iranian-Soviet colony in Syria under the guise of a restored Syrian state headed by Assad. Israel and Jordan are concerned both by Iranian and Russian hegemony in Syria at large, and more specifically by the penetration of pro-Iranian Shiite militias into southwestern Syria, close to their borders. Israel dispatched a security delegation to Washington to express its concerns and to try to obtain a US commitment to oppose continued Iranian military presence in Syria. Early press accounts in Israel indicate Israeli disappointment with the results of the visit.
It is against this backdrop that Egypt’s recent activism in Syria should be seen. Egypt is mediating between the regime and opposition groups in negotiating local cease fire agreements and Egyptian delegations are playing a role in the initial efforts underway to rebuild Syria’s economy. This policy represents a stark departure from an earlier policy that insisted on Assad’s departure from power. Cairo’s change of policy was resented by Saudi Arabia, a stauncher foe of Assad, but the Saudis now seem to realize that without US participation the policy of investing in opposition groups leads nowhere. They are receptive to the Egyptian argument that its policy in Syria is one of damage control, and that it is preferable for them to play a role and thereby reduce Iranian influence.
This view is shared at least to some extent by Israel. Israel may not have high hopes that Egypt could actually dispossess Iran in Syria, but it agrees that a greater Egyptian role could diminish that of Iran and place in the Syrian arena an actor that shares Israel’s view of the region and has a close security relationship with Israel. What works in the Sinai could possibly work in Syria…
[To Read the Full Article Click the Following Link—Ed.]
ISRAEL’S EMPTY EMBASSY IN CAIRO
Ofir Winter
INSS, July 3, 2017
Normalization between Israel and Egypt has always been limited, but even during periods of crisis, both countries were careful to preserve the fundamental assets of the peace between them, particularly the existence of functioning embassies in Tel Aviv and Cairo. The Egyptian embassy remained active even when Egypt recalled its ambassadors to Cairo for consultations in 1982, 2000, and 2012, in protest over Israel's policies. The Israeli embassy in Egypt did indeed limit its activity after it was invaded by demonstrators in September 2011, but the institution was preserved within the American embassy compound, and then in the residence of the Israeli ambassador. The only time that the Israeli presence in the Egyptian capital was cut off completely came in late 2016 – during a period that many consider to be one of the best in the history of relations between the two countries – when the Israeli ambassador and his staff returned to Israel due to security warnings. Months have passed since then, and the temporary is becoming permanent. Meantime, both sides have not rushed to find a formula that will enable the Israeli delegation to renew its work and restore proper diplomatic relations between the countries.
The relationship between Israel and Egypt during the el-Sisi presidency can be described as close but narrow. According to press reports, it is characterized by intimate contacts between the leaders, but focused primarily on security coordination around shared challenges in the Sinai Peninsula and the Gaza Strip. Security contacts take place directly between the armed forces, and therefore the absence of an ambassador does no damage on this score. Moreover, although Egypt does not oppose the return of the ambassador to Cairo, the prevailing situation of the last seven months has some advantages for it. It has removed the security burden of guarding the embassy, and saved the regime from the traditional criticisms from opponents of normalization about "the Israeli flag flying in the Egyptian capital.” Over the years, Egypt has seen normalization as more of a burden than an asset, although in the Peace Agreement both countries explicitly undertook to develop "friendly relations and cooperation" (preamble); bring about "diplomatic, economic and cultural relations" (section 3); and "exchange ambassadors" (Appendix 3, section 1). Accordingly, the embassy in Cairo was perceived as a "necessary evil" imposed on Egypt, and the Egyptian regime worked persistently to restrict its movements.
The controversial status of the Israeli embassy among the Egyptian establishment and public was handled comically in The Embassy in the Building, a movie starring Adel Emam that was released in 2005 and became a hit. The main character, who owns an apartment in the building where the embassy is located, finds himself at the center of a political row around the call to remove the facility, and becomes an unwilling national hero. In reality, however, serving in the Israeli embassy in Cairo was always a complex task. For example, Eliyahu Ben Elissar, Israel’s first ambassador to Egypt, wanted to place a paid notice in the daily al-Ahram regarding public hours in the Israeli consulate, but the newspaper refused to accept it. The second ambassador, Moshe Sasson, dealt with a boycott and isolation, and not a single official representative of the Egyptian government attended a reception he held in honor of Israel's 40th Independence Day. Ephraim Dubek, the fourth ambassador, complained to the Egyptian Foreign Ministry about the strict "security arrangements" imposed on the embassy in order to reduce the stream of visitors and make life harder for residents of the street.
The Egyptian attitude to the current Israeli Ambassador, Dr. David Govrin, who took over the job in August 2016, was no different. A special supplement of the establishment journal al-Ahram al-Arabi, published on October 24, 2016, complained about Govrin’s efforts "to leave the traditional ghetto of the Israeli ambassadors in Egypt" and accused him of "crossing red lines and deviating from diplomatic conventions." His "deviations," according to the supplement, included meeting with the heads of the Jewish community in Alexandria (where he allegedly offered assistance for renovation of the local synagogue); attending a performance of A Thousand and One Nights at the National Theater of Cairo (with a ticket purchased like any other member of the audience); and engaging with businessmen and civil society activists (who met with him of their own accord). These and other allegations stopped as soon as the ambassador returned to Israel…
[To Read the Full Article Click the Following Link—Ed.]
MB GROUPS INCREASINGLY OPEN IN
John Rossomando
IPT News, Aug. 16, 2017
A group of exiled Morsi-era Muslim Brotherhood politicians based in Istanbul has posted on Facebook a blueprint for overthrowing Egypt's military regime. The Egyptian Revolutionary Council (ERC) reposted several videos on July 31 that it had released on Facebook over the past month offering strategies for violently toppling the government of Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi.
Sisi rose to power in 2013, after the military ousted Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government. Until now the ERC, which met with Obama administration officials and liberal think tanks in 2015, has largely been involved in lobbying against Sisi's government. An Arabic hashtag saying, "Preparing for the Revolution#," appeared on the ERC's Facebook page. The attached videos contain PowerPoint-type presentations with recommendations for Muslim Brotherhood revolutionaries in Egypt.
A July 1 ERC video asks, "How do we prepare for the revolution?" Egypt's military holds all of the tools of power, so the video calls for Brotherhood supporters to block military movement to hinder it from suppressing any revolt. "What do we do with the Army?? Like the Turks did," the video says. "Determine the sites of all military units and the roads they use, and the locations of gates to hinder and cripple their movement when they think they are going out to confront the revolution…Like the Turks did using huge vehicles and deflating their tires to block the roads. We can use heavy oil on the roads to prevent the passage of [armored personnel] carriers like they did in Venezuela."
Another video recommends targeting regime military airfields, ground defense units, pilot barracks, spare part warehouses, radar sites, and air defense installations. It emphasizes getting soldiers who either secretly belong to the Muslim Brotherhood or are sympathetic to the group to collect intelligence on pilots and navigators to keep them away from their aircraft. It also suggests gaining intelligence on the types of aircraft used by the Egyptian military and getting information about their takeoff schedules. "The airfields must cease operating in the time of the revolution," a slide says. "Blockading the pilots and preventing them form reaching the airfields is half the victory in the battle."
The ERC enjoys little influence or name recognition within Egypt, but its turn toward endorsing violence puts egg on the faces of the Obama administration officials and the liberal intellectuals who embraced them, Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Samuel Tadros told the Investigative Project on Terrorism. "Even the fronts created to talk to the West are now using the language of violence," Tadros said. "The mask has fallen; there's no need to pretend any longer." ERC members used talking points about democracy and the rule of law while speaking in English during their 2015 visit, Tadros said, but those points were noticeably absent when they spoke in Arabic…
[To Read the Full Article Click the Following Link—Ed.]
Egypt Angered by US Aid Cut Over Human Rights Concerns: Washington Post, Aug. 24, 2017—Egypt reacted angrily Wednesday to the Trump administration’s decision to cut or delay nearly $300 million in military and economic aid over human rights concerns, a surprise move given the increasingly close ties that have bound the two allies since President Donald Trump took office in January.
Egypt’s Leader Makes a Risky Bet on the Healing Power of Economic Pain: Yaroslav Trofimov, Wall Street Journal, Aug. 7, 2017—Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi is cutting food and fuel subsidies, a program long plagued by waste and corruption, in a high-stakes gamble to aid the stalled economy that none of his predecessors dared execute.
Egypt Acts to Preserve Jewish Heritage: Rami Galal, Al-Monitor, August 23, 2017—The Egyptian Ministry of Antiquities announced Aug. 3 that it has begun renovations on the Eliyahu Hanavi Synagogue on Nabi Daniel Street in Alexandria at a cost of 100 million Egyptian pounds ($5.6 million).
Egypt Joins the Burkini Battle: Jacob Goff Klein, Jerusalem Post, Aug. 8, 2017—Egypt has reignited the debate over how much is too much cover at the beach. Long considered a sunny beach destination, some hotels in Egypt have caused fervor after banning women from wearing burkinis out of concern that the outfit is not a proper swimsuit. Burkini wearers have been quick to point out that the swimsuit is made with the same material as any other bathing suit.
