Interest in Past Leaders Reflects the Crisis on the Israeli Left: Prof. Hillel Frisch, BESA, June 26, 2018— A search for the term “Yitzhak Rabin” in Hebrew in Google Trends reveals a sharp decline in interest since 2005, the tenth anniversary of Rabin’s assassination. The decline is precipitous in the years immediately following 2005 and then levels off. Still, the decline over time is substantial. If searches for Rabin in 2004 represent 100, the high point, this figure was down to 6 by October 2017 – less than one-twelfth the number of searches 13 years before.
Can Abbas Revive Israel’s Left?: Daniel Gordis, Jerusalem Post, June 29, 2018— Everyone who cares about Israel should be worried about the fact that the position of head of the opposition is fairly meaningless. Everyone concerned about the future of the Jewish state should celebrate a powerful opposition. Genuine oppositions create debate.
Is Israel’s Zionist Camp on the Brink of Breaking Up?: Mazal Mualem, Al-Monitor, June 27, 2018— On June 24, the Jewish Agency approved the appointment of the Zionist Camp’s Isaac Herzog as its next chairman. In accepting the nomination, Herzog effectively resigned his position as Knesset opposition leader.
Lapid to Save Netanyahu as Labor Plans No Confidence Vote over Haredi Draft: David Israel, Jewish Press, July 1, 2018— The opposition is outraged by MK Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid faction decision to vote in favor of the coalition’s IDF draft bill.
On Topic Links
China, Israel Work Together in Technology and Innovation: Liangyu, Xinhua, July 5, 2018
Israel’s Economy is Booming Despite Growing Threat of War: Leah Rosenberg, Israel Unwired, July 2, 2018
Interest in Past Leaders Reflects the Crisis on the Israeli Left: Prof. Hillel Frisch, BESA, June 26, 2018
Knesset Speaker: Lawmakers Visiting Temple Mount Must Avoid Provocations: Israel Hayom, July 6, 2018
INTEREST IN PAST LEADERS REFLECTS THE CRISIS ON THE ISRAELI LEFT
Prof. Hillel Frisch
BESA, June 26, 2018
A search for the term “Yitzhak Rabin” in Hebrew in Google Trends reveals a sharp decline in interest since 2005, the tenth anniversary of Rabin’s assassination. The decline is precipitous in the years immediately following 2005 and then levels off. Still, the decline over time is substantial. If searches for Rabin in 2004 represent 100, the high point, this figure was down to 6 by October 2017 – less than one-twelfth the number of searches 13 years before.
Interest in Rabin is also sharply correlated to the period of commemoration that occurs in November of each year on the anniversary of the assassination. Obviously, official remembrance days heighten awareness in any particular year, but they have done little to arrest the overall decline in interest in Rabin.
The same exercise regarding Menachem Begin and Shamir shows a stark contrast. Whereas interest in Rabin has declined sharply, interest in Begin and Shamir remains surprisingly constant – not only over the years, but within the calendar year. These comparisons say nothing about the absolute number of searches over time among the three leaders. They do say something conclusive, however, about trends in interest and therefore in the collective historical memory.
How much these leaders are remembered can be gauged by the absolute number of searches for them, which I checked as of June 1, 2018. Begin, despite his having been older and whose death preceded that of Rabin, is nevertheless searched for far more in Hebrew: about 3,410,000 results compared to 2,510,000 for Rabin. Similarly, interest in Yitzhak Shamir has stayed at an even keel over time. Of course, the differences between the peaks and the steady periods is greater in Shamir’s case than in Begin’s because Shamir’s illness and subsequent death were tracked by Google Trends. Begin’s illness and death occurred well before the internet became popular.
That Begin and Shamir continue to generate interest in contrast to Rabin is probably a reflection of Israel’s changing political, cultural, and demographic profile. There is an ongoing decline in enrollment in secular government schools, an increase in enrollment in religious schools, and a greater percentage of students of Sephardic origin. It is also apparent that patterns of interest and memory correspond with and feed into general political trends – the growing dominance of the right and the decline of the left, especially the Labor Party, which was once led by Rabin.
Interest in Ariel Sharon over time places him somewhere between the growing disinterest in Rabin and the continued vibrant interest in Begin and Shamir. Interest in Sharon, as with other leaders, was at a high pitch when he suffered a stroke in office and peaked at his death. However, he continues to arouse interest. Since his death, he has continued to be searched at roughly half the rate at which he was searched while prime minister. (Of course, he was prime minister more than a decade after Rabin, so time will tell.)
One personality with whom it is difficult to compare is Shimon Peres, because little time has gone by since his decease. Interest in leaders always peaks at their death rather than during their lifetimes. The pattern of interest in Peres does appear “flatter” than that of the other leaders, probably because he never held significant positions of power following the inception of Google Trends. (The presidency is a largely ceremonial office in Israel.)
This is reflected in the far lower total number of Google searches for Peres – 1,980,000 compared to 3.4 million for Begin and 2.5 million for Rabin. Still, for a person who was never elected to the highest office, this is no mean achievement. The importance of serving as prime minister is reflected in the number of searches for Sharon in Hebrew: 2,720,000, far higher than Peres achieved either before or after his death. Searches for the incumbent Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu (the longest-serving prime minister, at least since the founding of the internet) amount, at over 15 million, to considerably more than those for the two leaders on the left, Rabin and Peres, put together. One mustn’t forget that Sharon and Peres are overcounted relative to Rabin and Begin because they passed away long after the internet established itself as the leading disseminator of political news.
An attempt to see if the same contrast in interest in Rabin and his political opponents, Begin and Shamir, extends to historical and ideological personalities who personified the two movements they represented – Berl Katznelson on the left and Ze’ev Jabotinski on the right – ended in failure. Google Trends reported insufficient findings for both, meaning interest in these figures (both of whom passed away more than eighty years ago) is limited to very small intellectual and academic circles. Where Rabin continues to evoke interest over time is outside Israel and among Israelis who search in English. Remarkably, one-third more searches were made on Rabin in Kenya (at 21%) than in the whole of the US, with its sizeable Jewish population. There were more searches on Rabin in Costa Rica, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, and Canada than in the US as well. Google Trends reported on searches for Rabin in 38 countries, the threshold of inclusion being that the searches must amount to 1% of searches that took place in the leading country (Israel).
Though Begin continues to arouse interest abroad, that interest is far more geographically limited. Google Trends reported on searches for Begin in only 21 countries. The gap between interest in Begin in Israel and in the rest of the world is far greater. Searches in the US, second after Israel, amounted to only 9% compared to 21% in the case of Rabin.
The findings relating to interest in Rabin, Begin, and Shamir should come as no surprise. While Israel is turning increasingly to the right, the international community continues to identify with Israel’s peace camp, which is personified – rightly or wrongly – by Yitzhak Rabin. The pattern of interest in past leaders is bad news for the Israeli left as it is Israelis, not their critics abroad, who vote their leaders into office.
CAN ABBAS REVIVE ISRAEL’S LEFT?
Daniel Gordis
Jerusalem Post, June 29, 2018
Buji Herzog’s move to head the Jewish Agency (an appointment that Benjamin Netanyahu did not want, but which American Jewish leaders pushed through to slap the prime minister around a bit for having slapped them around with the Kotel) will likely produce a much-ado-about-not-very-much competition for the position of head of the opposition.
Everyone who cares about Israel should be worried about the fact that the position of head of the opposition is fairly meaningless. Everyone concerned about the future of the Jewish state should celebrate a powerful opposition. Genuine oppositions create debate. Real political debate allows a society to hone its views of its future, to ask itself what it wants to stand for. Even those who support Netanyahu should want his ideas and positions challenged, not because he is necessarily wrong, but for the sake of Israel’s public discourse. And those on the Left should – if the Left ever again comes to power in Israel – want a thoughtful, passionate and compelling opposition from the Right, for the very same reason. A real opposition is critical to a functioning democracy worth its name. But Israel hasn’t had one in almost 18 years.
Yasser Arafat killed Israel’s Left. By rejecting the offer that Ehud Barak presented under US President Bill Clinton’s watchful eye and then unleashing the Second Intifada, Arafat proved that the very premises of the Left had been utterly wrong. The Left had argued that the Palestinians wanted a state and just needed a reasonable offer. Arafat (who didn’t even counter Barak’s proposal) proved that false. The Left had argued since 1967 that Israel could get peace by giving up land, and Arafat proved that wrong, too.
When Hamas announced just last month that its protests at the border fence would “end the Zionist project,” it proved once again that the Left was wrong. When Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas spewed his antisemitic venom at almost the same moment and denied that the Jewish people has any historic connection to this land whatsoever, he proved the Left wrong again. On that level, it’s not the Israeli Left’s fault that it’s dead. Someone killed it.
But it is the Israeli Left’s fault that it remains dead. After having had the carpet pulled out from under it in 2000, it has allowed almost two decades to pass without its having offered the Israeli public another compelling vision for our future. The more the Left argues that “there is a partner,” that ceasing settlement building will bring us peace – if not now, then eventually – the more most of the Israeli public becomes even more convinced that any intersection between reality and the Left’s ideology is accidental at best. That is terrible not only for Israel’s Left, but for Israel as a whole.
IRONICALLY, THOUGH, if Arafat killed the Left, Abbas might just bring it back to life. Soon, it seems, the trio of US President Donald Trump, special representative for international negotiations Jason Greenblatt and senior adviser Jared Kushner is likely to float its plan for Mideast peace. That plan will likely give Israel more than it will give the Palestinians, which will, in turn, afford Abbas some cover as he rejects it. To be fair to Trump & Co., Abbas has already announced this is his intention even before he’s seen the plan, but still, he’ll get some air cover.
Many Israelis and supporters of Israel will delight in Trump’s plan. It will almost certainly not call for wholesale removal of settlers from their homes, perhaps not even those beyond the security barrier. It will likely not name east Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine. It will likely give Israel control over security matters even in Palestinian areas. It will probably not call for a Palestinian state, at least for now. And because Trump is so busy trying to undo Obama’s legacy, he will probably seek to make sure that whatever stalemate he puts in place will not easily be undone. It will be, in short, a big win for Israel’s Center-Right.
The Left will say, not incorrectly, that the Trump “victory” is actually a potential deadly blow to Israel, because one day the three million Palestinians who will remain stateless are going to say, “Fine, don’t give us a state. Just give us Israeli citizenship.” In today’s world, that would not fly. Israelis would say no, and the international community would probably not get on board either.
But a day will come when things are different. It could be more violence in which Israelis are dying by the hundreds again. It could be a very different White House. It could be a Europe unchastened by US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley’s moral clarity. At some point, though, it could well happen, and if it does, and Israel has no choice but to accede, the Jewish democratic state will teeter.
How do we avoid that? Since Israel is not giving the Palestinians a state now, but won’t want them as citizens later, what should we do in the meantime? How do we imagine their lives, and ours, in 25 years, after Trump’s “solution”?
When the post-Trump announcement hoopla dies down, will anyone in Israel have the grounding in reality, the Zionist passion and the moral clarity to offer Israelis a realistic and compelling vision for the future of a Jewish and democratic state? Today, the answer to that question is no. If the Israeli Left stays moribund and delusionally detached from reality, that’s precisely how matters will remain. And our children – or theirs – will pay the price.
IS ISRAEL’S ZIONIST CAMP ON THE BRINK OF BREAKING UP?
Mazal Mualem
Al-Monitor, June 27, 2018
On June 24, the Jewish Agency approved the appointment of the Zionist Camp’s Isaac Herzog as its next chairman. In accepting the nomination, Herzog effectively resigned his position as Knesset opposition leader. The prestigious appointment generated all sorts of shockwaves, including an ultimatum by the Zionist Camp’s Tzipi Livni issued the following day. It was hard to miss the fleeting expression of shock on the face of Zionist Camp leader Avi Gabbay during the party’s Knesset faction meeting, where Gabbay found himself ambushed by Livni.
During a live broadcast, Livni demanded that she be appointed to replace Herzog as opposition chair, or she would end her party’s partnership with Labor. Hatnua, Livni’s party, and Labor are the two factions in the Zionist Camp alliance. Livni’s statement, clearly a carefully crafted message, was fired with remarkable precision to catch Gabbay off guard: “I see the opposition leadership as essential for the continuation of the partnership. It can be a great opportunity to strengthen the partnership,” she said. This hit Gabbay before he had even had time to recover from Herzog’s surprise move.
Less than a week after learning that Herzog was the leading contender to head the Jewish Agency, Gabbay was dealt the second blow, even more devastating than the first. Once Gabbay internalized Herzog’s appointment, he actually came to regard it as useful. After all, the position of Jewish Agency chairman, sometimes called the “prime minister of the Jewish people,” is a highly regarded official position. For Herzog, getting it was a personal victory over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s candidate, Likud Minister Yuval Steinitz. At the same time, it also represented a victory for Labor and the center-left camp. Having suffered one defeat after another for the past few years, they could finally enjoy the moment, but it passed in an instant. As soon as the Jewish Agency’s board of directors unanimously approved Herzog’s appointment, the battle to succeed him as opposition chair erupted suddenly and openly.
When Gabbay was elected Labor chair in July 2017 to replace Herzog, he could not assume the role of opposition chair — traditionally reserved for the leader of the largest opposition party — because he was not a member of the Knesset. This resulted in an anomalous situation in which the outgoing Labor chair, Herzog, remained opposition chair, a position considered a symbol of governance, even after Gabbay replaced him as party leader.
Gabbay cannot address the Knesset, nor does he have a security detail, a car or a spacious office at the Knesset. Nevertheless, he got along with Herzog, and although Herzog addressed the Knesset, he never overshadowed Gabbay, and he made a point of working in full cooperation with him. It was all a matter of character and style.
Meanwhile, Herzog has managed to assure himself a soft landing in the Jewish Agency. He will be spared an unknown fate in a party in tatters, according to polls, leaving behind him colleagues now more adrift than ever and squabbling among themselves. In the war of succession, it is not at all clear that Gabby can emerge unscathed against Livni. If he refuses to allow her to serve as opposition chair, he risks her quitting the party and taking her supporters with her. This would be a serious blow electorally, since polls show Livni with six or seven seats.
Hatnua, which Livni founded, joined forces with Labor on the eve of the 2015 election. She joined Herzog in forming the Zionist Camp, serving as his No. 2 but also as co-leader. While the party won 24 seats, it remained in the opposition desert. Gabbay, who did not sign an agreement with Livni, had left the issue of Labor’s alliance with Hatnua open. Livni meanwhile has not hidden her disdain for Labor’s internecine fighting, complex party leadership mechanism and wheeling and dealing that goes on. The past few months with the Labor chairman, Gabbay, have not been easy for Livni. She watched as he made himself the focus of media attention, and she, being a seasoned politician and considering herself the senior partner, did not like it.
The Zionist Camp’s collapse in the polls is not good for the well-being of anyone in the party. With new elections thought to be in the offing, Livni began considering her next move. She stepped up her political activity, revived the Hatnua brand and began acting independently. Most of all, she continued to dream of one day becoming prime minister. With Herzog’s departure, she saw the chance to return to center stage. Her demand to be appointed opposition chair is based on the claim that it is her right according to the alliance agreement between Labor and Hatnua.
The problem Gabbay faces is that Livni’s opportunity could actually bury him. Livni has a prominent media profile in Israel as well as internationally. She is a former foreign minister and was almost elected prime minister. As opposition chair, she will undoubtedly steal public attention from Gabbay. […]
[To Read the Full Article Click the Following Link—Ed.]
LAPID TO SAVE NETANYAHU AS LABOR PLANS
NO CONFIDENCE VOTE OVER HAREDI DRAFT
David Israel
Jewish Press, July 1, 2018
The opposition is outraged by MK Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid faction decision to vote in favor of the coalition’s IDF draft bill, even after the Zionist Union had announced it planned to turn the vote on the bill into a no-confidence vote that could topple Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. Chairman of the Zionist Union Knesset faction Yoel Hasson made it clear that his party would turn the vote on the draft law into a vote of no-confidence against the Netanyahu government. Hasson tweeted: “It means that whoever votes in favor of the bill gives the Netanyahu government a green light to continue. Yesh Atid and the Haredi parties will have to decide next Monday where they stand: for or against the government. Being against the bill and against the government is what’s expected of an opposition.”
The controversial military draft bill is expected to be presented to the Knesset plenum for its first reading this week. Lapid says he would vote with the government, because the proposed bill is, essentially, his bill from the time he served in the PM’s previous government. “There is no change, we will vote in favor of the draft law,” Yesh Atid stated Saturday night, which means the bill will likely pass, despite opposition from the Haredi coalition partners.
Lapid wrote on his Facebook page Saturday: “This is actually a Yesh Atid law. It is no accident that the Haredim are against it. It was born in the wake of our victory in the High Court of Justice. Its basic principles are derived from the law that we passed in the previous government. The chief of staff and the IDF have signed on to it, and most importantly, it will lead to more Haredim enlisting and more Haredim entering the labor market.”
As to the claim that the new bill does not impose criminal sanctions on Haredi draft dodgers—said sanctions constituting the biggest objection of the Haredi parties to previous versions of the IDF draft bill—Lapid wrote that there actually are sanctions implied in the latest version: “The bill explicitly states that if, after three years, the Haredim do not meet recruitment targets, the criminal sanctions will come into force. […]”
[To Read the Full Article Click the Following Link—Ed.]
On Topic Links
China, Israel Work Together in Technology and Innovation: Liangyu, Xinhua, July 5, 2018— Representatives from more than 2,000 Chinese and Israeli companies attended the 4th China-Israel Investment Summit in Zhuhai, South China’s Guangdong Province, from July 2 to 3. In addition to road shows, there were forums on topics such as intelligent manufacturing, the digital economy, biomedicine, smart cities and intellectual property rights.
Israel’s Economy is Booming Despite Growing Threat of War: Leah Rosenberg, Israel Unwired, July 2, 2018—Israel’s economy is remarkable, especially given the fact that Israel is so young. But despite the booming economy, Israel faces the threat of war.
Interest in Past Leaders Reflects the Crisis on the Israeli Left: Prof. Hillel Frisch, BESA, June 26, 2018—A search for the term “Yitzhak Rabin” in Hebrew in Google Trends reveals a sharp decline in interest since 2005, the tenth anniversary of Rabin’s assassination. The decline is precipitous in the years immediately following 2005 and then levels off. Still, the decline over time is substantial. If searches for Rabin in 2004 represent 100, the high point, this figure was down to 6 by October 2017 – less than one-twelfth the number of searches 13 years before.
Knesset Speaker: Lawmakers Visiting Temple Mount Must Avoid Provocations: Israel Hayom, July 6, 2018—Lawmakers visiting the Temple Mount in Jerusalem must avoid provocations at the volatile site, Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein instructed Thursday.
