CIJR | Canadian Institute for Jewish Research
L'institut Canadien de Recherches sur le Judaisme

Analysis

Winners and Losers of the 12-Day Israel–Iran War

riegsszene mit Flaggen von Iran und Israel mit Explosion und Panzern - Kostenloses Foto auf ccnull.de / ccby.de
SOURCE: CCNull
riegsszene mit Flaggen von Iran und Israel mit Explosion und Panzern - Kostenloses Foto auf ccnull.de / ccby.de SOURCE: CCNull

 

John Spencer

Spencerguard Substack, June 24, 2025

“… there can be no question that Iran’s nuclear program has been set back drastically.”

“War is thus an act of force to compel our enemy to do our will.” — Carl von Clausewitz

War is not chaos. It is the deliberate application of force in pursuit of political objectives. Every modern conflict must be judged according to those objectives. In the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, three major actors pursued distinct goals: Israel, Iran, and the United States. Based on what can be objectively and openly assessed, Israel and the United States achieved overwhelming success at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels. Iran, while executing limited retaliation, suffered a decisive defeat. Most importantly, the world is now safer, because Iran is no longer as close to acquiring a nuclear weapon.

Israel: Precision, Superiority, and Clarity of Purpose

From the outset of Operation Rising Lion, Israel’s political objective was clear. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared on day one that Israel would no longer accept the threat of a near-term nuclear-armed Iran. Within the first 72 hours, Israel conducted one of the most sophisticated preemptive strike campaigns in modern history.

Over 300 guided munitions were launched in five synchronized waves. Israel struck dozens of critical Iranian targets including nuclear facilities, air bases, missile launchers, drone hubs, and leadership compounds. This was done while Israel was simultaneously conducting a major ground operation in Gaza, deterring Hezbollah and defending its own civilians from daily missile attacks.

Israel did more than strike deep. It dominated Iranian skies. The Israeli Air Force operated freely over Iranian territory. No Israeli aircraft were shot down. Not a single pilot was forced to eject or be rescued. Iran’s air defenses, including Russian-built systems, failed to stop any manned aircraft. Israel demonstrated complete air superiority and the operational freedom to hit any target, anywhere inside Iran, without interference. …SOURCE

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