Chris Miller
WSJ, Sept. 29, 2022
“The Russian military knows that its most advanced systems depend on smuggled or improvised components of questionable reliability.”
The Russian military has blundered repeatedly during the seven months since its armies stormed into Ukraine, but if Kyiv’s successful counteroffensives had to be explained with just one word, that word would be an acronym: “Himars.”
A High Mobility Artillery Rocket System is a truck-mounted canister of six missiles capable of launching pinpoint strikes against targets far behind Russian lines. Provided by the U.S., the systems are “turning the course of war,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said. Himars rockets have struck more than 400 targets with “devastating effect,” confirmed Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff. Or, from Moscow’s point of view, as one Russian journalist put it upon surveying the scene of an ammunition dump hit by Himars rockets, “The situation is horrible.”
Russia uses precision munitions when they are available, but it has also relied heavily on simply saturating Ukrainian positions with unguided artillery fire. These tactics have decimated cities such as Mariupol and allowed Russia to eke out slow gains in the heavily contested eastern region known as the Donbas. But since receiving Himars from the U.S., Ukraine has been able to carry out targeted strikes that are far more effective than Russia’s indiscriminate artillery volleys.
U.S. and Ukrainian officials believe that Russia has already used a substantial share of its precision munitions and will struggle to produce more quickly.
Why should a country with Russia’s resources and scientific pride be so reliant on brawn over brains in its weapons systems? The problem isn’t new. Leading U.S. defense analysts estimate that only 5% of the munitions Russia has used in the war in Syria were smart weapons. Moscow has numerous precision systems in its arsenal, but stockpiles are low, targeting intelligence is poor, and forces regularly deploy unguided munitions for tasks that Western militaries would accomplish using more advanced technology. …Source