Reuel Marc Gerecht
Sapir Journal, Vol. 4, Winter 2022
“Future Western sanctions are unlikely to crack the regime. Donald Trump gave it his best shot.”
Can the Islamic Republic of Iran — the radical theocratic regime, that is, as opposed to the nation it tyrannizes — fall by the year 2030? That would be a moonshot for the Jewish people, though it would take a bold gambler to answer yes. Let’s think through the possibilities.
The supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, is 82 and has battled cancer. It’s possible to imagine scenarios after his death where contending factions divide the ruling clergy and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, leading to regime collapse. It’s also possible to imagine outside powers convulsing the theocracy — foreigners have often changed the course of Iranian history — leading to massive demonstrations and a successful insurrection. The two could even intertwine. Neither seems very likely, however, although the second scenario is more conceivable.
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