Gerald M. Steinberg
Jewish Journal, Feb. 24, 2022
“For Israel, the events in Ukraine are an important reality check.”
The first lesson to be learned (or relearned) from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is that the absence of deterrence can be fatal for any nation. The bravery and determination displayed by the leaders and citizens of Ukraine are impressive, but have not prevented Putin’s onslaught. In the West—mainly the U.S. and NATO—good intentions and strong words of support notwithstanding, the lack of a credible deterrent to dissuade Putin was Clearly evident, including from the Kremlin.
Deterrence against a powerful and determined opponent is inherently complex and uncertain. During the Cold War, strategists agonized over the best means of preventing Moscow from challenging and weakening American power and the NATO alliance, including MAD—mutual assured destruction. But when the Soviet state collapsed, and the end of history was declared, deterrence was largely forgotten, allowing Putin to build up his forces without interference. By the time the U.S. and NATO woke up to the threat, Russia had full control.
For Israel, the events in Ukraine are an important reality check. Israelis recognize that no outside power, not even the U.S., can be relied on to guarantee survival in the face of a powerful threat. In 1948, after defeating the combined Arab attack at great cost, Ben Gurion understood the need for the tiny Jewish state to be capable of defending itself against future threats, as was demonstrated in 1967. Later, having America as an ally added to Israeli security, but did not replace the centrality of self-reliance.
Gerald Steinberg is emeritus professor of political science at Bar-Ilan University and heads the Institute for NGO Research in Jerusalem.
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