Walter Russell Mead
WSJ, Sept. 12, 2022
“… if the front doesn’t stabilize, or if he feels that public resistance to a general mobilization could endanger the stability of the regime, he might look to more drastic options, such as the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.”
Ukraine scored a stunning victory in the Kharkiv region over the weekend. Routed Russian forces ditched valuable weapons and tons of badly needed munitions and supplies in a chaotic rush to safety. This signals a new stage in Vladimir Putin’s disastrous war. The Ukrainian army is better armed, better led and more committed to the war than its Russian opponents, and morale among Ukraine’s defenders will now be higher than ever.
Mr. Putin’s choices look bleak. As he struggles to stabilize the military situation while fending off critics at home, he must choose between accepting a humiliating defeat in Ukraine and doubling down in pursuit of a military victory that, as more Western weapons reach Ukraine’s energized defenders, looks very difficult to achieve.
Ukraine can take a moment to celebrate, and even gloat, over a hard-fought military success. The Biden administration deserves credit for leading the surge of allied support that made the Ukrainians’ extraordinary achievement possible. And supporters of peace and freedom around the world can rejoice that Mr. Putin’s wanton aggression has brought him to such an unhappy place. Yet Ukraine’s northern victory, however welcome, isn’t the end of the war. As Mr. Putin contemplates his options, we may be approaching a moment of maximum danger.
For Mr. Putin, the war in Ukraine began as what Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass has called a “war of choice.” Mr. Putin could have left Ukraine undisturbed and gone on to rule Russia for many years to come. But having chosen to start the war, he can’t afford to lose it. Radical Russian nationalists are already blaming him for the military failures in Ukraine. The Kremlin is no place for the weak, and the hard men who run Russia could turn on a politically wounded Mr. Putin in a heartbeat. Regardless of public sentiment across Russia, the people closest to Mr. Putin likely still want him to win the war.
The question is what Mr. Putin does next. If he can stabilize the military front until winter sets in, he has several months to prepare for the spring. He might use that time to organize a general mobilization, building a much larger conscript army for another year of conventional combat. But if the front doesn’t stabilize, or if he feels that public resistance to a general mobilization could endanger the stability of the regime, he might look to more drastic options, such as the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. …SOURCE
