Seth J. Frantzman
Jerusalem Post, Aug. 29, 2022
“We have declared many times that nuclear weapons have no place in our nuclear doctrine.”
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi gave a speech on Monday in which he outlined Iran’s regional and domestic goals. It contained an interesting and important series of talking points that hinted at the regime’s focus. Here are several key takeaways from the speech.
Iran-China ties
Iran and China enjoy increasing bilateral ties. These include a 25-year agreement, increased investment in trade and closer work in the political sphere. The overall trend is that Iran is moving closer to China and also cementing an alliance with Russia, because it does not want to rely on the West anymore.
After the experience of the Iran nuclear deal and the endless talks about a return to it, Tehran has concluded that working with Beijing is more reliable than working with the West. This is important because while other countries in the region also work with China, many of them are still oriented toward the West.
The Iran-China relationship can transform Iran’s weak economy. But Beijing also has hurdles today with a weakening currency and crisis in its housing sector. Declining demographics in China and the pandemic are continuing to send shock waves through the government over its ability to continue the current growth rate. Iran might think it is tying itself to a rising economy only to find out that China will use Iran instead and not empower it the way Iran thinks it will.
Delayed response to Israel’s actions
Raisi did not focus extensively on Israel but did hint that Iran might choose to respond to the Jewish state at a later date of its choosing. This delayed response is in contrast to Iran’s usual boasting about destroying Israel. Tehran appears to be biding its time and considering its approach. It wants to use proxies such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad to confront Israel in smaller engagements and then wait for a larger crisis to emerge. The Islamic Republic prefers to sacrifice others against Israel, rather than its own officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. … SOURCE
