Carmit Balensi and Gallia Lindenstrauss
INSS Insight No. 1689, Feb. 8, 2023
“A more likely explanation is that this is a political ploy by Erdogan ahead of upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections, which were moved up and are now scheduled for May 14.”
Since May 2022, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to launch yet another military operation in northern Syria. In November 2022 Turkish forces began aerial bombardments in northern Syria, after a terror attack in Istanbul that Turkish authorities attributed to the Syrian branch of the Kurdish underground – although the latter denied responsibility for the attack. On January 14, 2023, Erdogan’s senior advisor Ibrahim Kalin stated that a ground operation in Syria could begin at any time. Yet at the same time, over the past year Ankara has also made conciliatory statements that did not rule out negotiations. Indeed, on December 28, the Turkish and Syrian defense ministers held a meeting in Moscow, with Russian mediation; the UAE later joined the efforts to promote a settlement. The move generated a wave of protest in northern Syria – a region populated by opponents of the regime – against normalization. In this context, several reports have noted a reversal in Assad’s image, from an ostracized figure to legitimate president.
At the same time, many indications underscore that there is still a long way to go toward a resolution between Ankara and Damascus. One seemingly technical reflection of the distance that remains is the halted process that was supposed to build trust and basic agreements between the sides. The transition from meetings of the defense ministers to meetings of the foreign ministers has not moved ahead as planned. The next stage after meetings of the foreign ministers was meant to be a historic summit between Assad and Erdogan, after over 12 years when they did not meet. But the meeting of the foreign ministers has not yet occurred; the postponement was attributed to scheduling constraints.
Assad himself, in his first statement on the matter on January 12, sought to cool expectations, stating: “For these meetings to be productive, they should be founded on co-ordination and advanced planning between Syria and Russia,” and that the aim of talks should be “ending the occupation and support for terrorism.” Syrian foreign minister Faisal Mekdad reinforced Assad’s statement and said that “a meeting between Assad and the Turkish leadership depends on removing the reasons for the dispute…We cannot talk about resuming normal ties with Turkey without removing the occupation.”
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