Jianli Yang
The Diplomat, June 24, 2025
“In the likely event that the U.S. and Israel fail to achieve a clean regime change in Iran, residual Iranian military forces or allied militias could transform into decentralized insurgent or terrorist groups, inflicting damage on Western interests in the region.”
Since Israel began its aerial strikes on Iranian territory, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and top leaders have repeatedly voiced strong condemnation of Israel’s actions, accusing Tel Aviv of escalating tensions in the Middle East. Following the dramatic U.S. military operation on June 21 – codenamed “Operation Midnight Hammer” – that targeted three Iranian nuclear facilities under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) oversight, China’s rhetoric intensified. In a statement, China’s Foreign Ministry “strongly condemn[ed] the U.S. attacks on Iran,” adding, “The actions of the U.S. seriously violate the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and international law, and have exacerbated tensions in the Middle East.”
China portrays itself as a responsible global power calling for de-escalation, protection of state sovereignty, and adherence to international law and United Nations principles. However, this façade of moral uprightness masks China’s deep and layered strategic calculations. While China champions peace and stability in its official statements, its short-term and long-term interests in the region tell a more complex story – one of calculated ambivalence and strategic flexibility.
In the short term, China unequivocally prefers stability in the Middle East. Any escalation between the United States, Israel, and Iran threatens to destabilize a region critical to Beijing’s economic and energy strategies. The most immediate risk lies in China’s massive dependence on Middle Eastern energy – including from Iran. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, accounting for approximately 80-90 percent of Iran’s total oil exports. …..SOURCE