Seth Cropsey
WSJ, June 25, 2024
“By manipulating the U.S. into restraining Israel, Iran hopes to keep Israel frozen and slowly erode its will. At some point in the coming months, Iran expects a cease-fire that will allow it to capture the West Bank and threaten Israel’s existence.”
Israel faces a strategic choice with regard to Iran—war now or war later. The political conditions for war now are poor. The strategic conditions later will only grow worse.
Iran’s goal is to destroy Israel as a uniquely Jewish state through a strategy of attrition. The mullahs hope to bind Israel in a series of conflicts and pressure it from multiple angles while using diplomacy and media manipulation to prolong the conflict. Tehran understands the potency of Israel’s military, which has adapted well to difficult urban and subterranean combat conditions in Gaza. The Israel Defense Forces field formidable air, artillery and armored units that, if unleashed in the north, would threaten the existence of Hezbollah, Iran’s most capable proxy. The Iranian deterrence strategy couples pressure on the U.S. with the threat of large-scale rocket and missile attacks against critical Israeli infrastructure.
Hamas is the most apparent element of Iran’s strategy. Iran wants the terrorist organization not only to maintain control of Gaza but to catapult itself into control of the Palestinian movement. The best way to do that is to compel the Israelis to accept a cosmetically appealing “peace agreement” involving the Arab states that allows Hamas to integrate into the Palestinian Authority and co-opt its necrotic rival, Fatah. The West Bank could then become another axis of pressure on Israel.
The only way for Israel to prevent this is through a de facto occupation of Gaza. Israel must demonstrate to Gazans that whatever the formal governing authority in the territory, the IDF won’t allow Hamas or a similar terrorist organization to return. As in all totalitarian regimes, Hamas has created overwhelming incentives for cooperation, and killed all possible opposition. Only by demonstrating staying power can the IDF break this cycle and encourage an alternative political structure. … [To read the full article, click here]
