Asli Aiydintashas, Julien Barnes-Dacey, and Cinzia Bianco
European Council on Foreign Relations, Feb. 10, 2022
“… rising tensions between the West and Russia will likely damage regional stabilisation efforts, particularly in Libya and Syria.”
Ukraine’s fate hangs in the balance. Renewed international diplomacy strengthens hopes for a negotiated settlement, but the spectre of all-out war still looms large. If Russia launches a new offensive against Ukraine, the ripple effects for European interests will travel far beyond the two countries, with the Middle East and North Africa likely to be particularly affected.
The war in Ukraine will likely create new problems for Europe in the region. While states in the Middle East and North Africa will not be able to single-handedly replace Russia as Europe’s main energy provider (as some hope), they will secure greater leverage over the West. This could be a setback for the Biden administration’s efforts to shift its focus away from the Middle East and towards Asia, but it could create new opportunities for European diplomacy such as mediation efforts between Algeria and Morocco to open energy pipelines.
Meanwhile, rising tensions between the West and Russia will likely damage regional stabilisation efforts, particularly in Libya and Syria. All-out war between Russia and Ukraine could also prompt a sharp increase in global energy and wheat prices. This could have a devastating humanitarian impact on already fragile states in the Levant and North Africa, whose governance problems could worsen. Regional states that were already struggling economically could find themselves even weaker and more vulnerable to external pressure. These dynamics are especially dangerous in a region where rising bread prices have so often been an indicator of political upheaval and broader turmoil.
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