Gallia Lindenstrauss and Rémi Daniel,
INSS Insight No. 1853, May 19, 2024
“The radicalization of Turkey’s approach is also part of Ankara’s efforts to influence the course of the war in the Gaza Strip.”
Since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip, Turkey’s hawkish rhetoric toward Israel has stood out, but for months it was similar to what had been witnessed in previous rounds of conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. Ankara did take several practical steps, such as canceling joint events and recalling the ambassador for consultations, yet these measures were moderate and at a level that Israel could manage. However, since April, Turkey has made a number of moves, indicating a fundamental shift in the relations between the two countries. Most significant has been the decision in early May to completely cease trade with Israel. This decision follows Turkey’s ban in April on exporting 54 categories of products to Israel. The decision to completely cease trade, which went into effect immediately, is also unusual when compared to other conflicts worldwide, let alone compared to Turkey’s conduct toward other players.
To date, both the governments of Turkey and Israel had succeeded in separating their political crises from their trade ties. In the second decade of the 21st century, although considered a “lost decade” in Turkish–Israeli relations, trade between the two countries steadily increased, even during times of crises, such as after the Mavi Marmara incident or following the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital by US President Donald Trump. Although the volume of bilateral trade between the countries dropped to $5.7 billion in 2023 from a record $8 billion in 2022, the trade volume is significant, with Turkey being among the five largest exporters to Israel. Therefore, Turkey’s policy will have an impact on many businesses and will most likely lead to price increases in Israel.
Turkey’s close relationship with Hamas has also been a contentious issue between Israel and Turkey for many years. The fact that Hamas leaders have been revered in Turkey since October 7th and act as if it is their new base of operations, coupled with the growing pressure on Qatar to expel the Hamas leadership from its territory, complicates the situation. Turkey, however, does not appear to be reassessing its relations with Hamas in the wake of the war.
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