Yoni Ben Menachem
Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, Jan. 15, 2025
“Western intelligence sources suggest Erdogan harbors ambitions of reviving the Ottoman Empire, seeking to position himself as a modern-day sultan or caliph overseeing Sunni forces in the Middle East, including Jerusalem, which was once part of the Ottoman Empire.”
Rising Turkish Influence in Syria: A National Security Concern
Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, senior Israeli security officials have expressed alarm over Turkey’s growing involvement in the region.
According to the Jacob Nagel Committee’s report on Israel’s defense budget, published on January 6, 2025, Turkey’s ambitions to “restore the Ottoman crown to its former glory” present a pressing security challenge.
The report underscores the potential for new threats to Israel stemming from Syria’s changing landscape. It highlights the possibility of an extremist Syrian regime with an anti-Israel ideology replacing Assad’s government.
This scenario, the report warns, could be even more dangerous than the Iranian threat, given Syria’s geographic proximity and strategic significance. Turkish military presence and political ambitions in Syria could destabilize the region and create direct security challenges for Israel.
The report warns of a scenario where Turkey sponsors Syrian proxy forces hostile to Israel, effectively extending Turkey’s influence and increasing regional instability.
Erdogan’s Ottoman Aspirations and the Syrian Connection
President Erdogan’s rhetoric has fueled concerns about his intentions in Syria. Speaking at the eighth conference of his Justice and Development Party, Erdogan remarked, “If the region had not been divided after World War I, cities like Aleppo, Sham, Hama, and Homs would still be part of Turkey.”
Turkish opposition sources suggest Erdogan’s policies aim to revive the Ottoman Caliphate through strategic control over Syria.
Reports in the Turkish press indicate plans to establish military bases in Syria equipped with air defense systems, ostensibly to protect against Israeli airstrikes.
Erdogan has also pledged support to Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, the new de facto ruler of Syria, by providing weapons and assistance in building a Syrian army to replace forces weakened by Israeli strikes….SOURCE