Raz Zimmt
INSS Insight No. 1998, June 25, 2025
“It is worth noting that there is no indication that Iran is currently interested in returning to a negotiated framework—especially not one that would require concessions perceived in Tehran as capitulation to US dictates, foremost among them the relinquishment of Iran’s enrichment capabilities.”
The ceasefire between Iran and Israel, declared on June 24, 2024, signals the conclusion of the most intense and severe phase to date in the ongoing confrontation between the Islamic Republic and Israel. Israel can claim this round of battle as a significant success. Even if Iran retains a stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%—which it had before the conflict and may have relocated to hidden sites—its nuclear program has been significantly set back.
Although it is likely that the two enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow were not totally destroyed, they suffered substantial damage, and the elimination of more than ten senior nuclear scientists will either prevent or, at least, seriously hamper Iran’s ability to break out toward nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future. Iran might still be able to produce weapons-grade fissile material enriched to 90%, but it is doubtful that this alone would be sufficient to enable it to manufacture an actual nuclear weapon. Moreover, the US decision to carry out strikes reflects a historic American resolve to actually use military leverage—an important precedent that may ease the path for future administrations to do the same if necessary.
Conversely, Iran is likely to portray the war as a success regardless of its actual outcomes. Throughout the fighting, Iranian authorities and media emphasized Israeli casualties and the scale of damage inflicted on Israel, in an effort to construct a narrative that the Islamic Republic is capable of withstanding prolonged confrontation with Israel and causing it serious harm in return. Even Hezbollah’s defeat last summer continues to be framed in Iran as a “victory,” with claims that the organization succeeded in forcing a ceasefire on Israel, which allegedly failed to achieve its key strategic objectives. There is little reason to assume Iran’s narrative at the end of the current hostilities will differ. ….SOURCE