Prof. Efraim Inbar
JISS, Sept. 8, 2024
“Political engineering by outsiders is doomed to fail in the Middle East. Therefore, an active interventionist European foreign policy to move societies into a democratic track is unlikely to produce positive results.”
Europe borders the Middle East, and the continent cannot insulate itself from events in this region. Its options, however, are limited: Europe is hardly a strategic actor with the political will and requisite capabilities to intervene. Moreover, the Middle East is not easily amenable to foreign intervention. Nevertheless, Europe cannot ignore developments that impact its national security and if it concentrates its efforts, it may have a modest input in ensuring that pro-stability forces gain the upper hand.
The Gaza war reflects two important features of Middle Eastern politics, as well as the ongoing competition in the global system. In large parts of the Middle East, we see failures in grappling with the challenge of state building. The Hamas Islamist militia took over Gaza in a bloody coup in 2007, as the Palestinian Authority (PA) failed to maintain a monopoly over the use of force in the territory under its control. Palestinian Islamic Jihad operated along-side Hamas in Gaza, and several clans had armed militias. Similarly, militias are vying for control in Iraq (in the wake of the American departure), in Syria, Yemen, Sudan and Libya. Hezbollah, a Shiite militia has taken over Lebanon, despite the parallel existence of a national government and army. Hezbollah started a war of attrition with Israel in October 2023 without consulting the Lebanese government.
The Gaza war is also a manifestation of Iranian ambitions for hegemony in a region that was once part of the Persian empire. Iran’s Islamic revolution has sought to wage perpetual and unbridled holy war against Western civilization and to takeover Sunni Arab lands – it also targets Israel in this jihad. Many of the region’s militias have been trained, equipped, and supported by a religiously motivated Iran. … [To read the full article, click here]
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