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Taiwan: Scenarios for an invasion from China

Enrico Colombotto

GIS, May 12, 2022

“Some believe that Chinese President Xi Jinping wants to complete the reunification of all “Chinese children” by the end of his 2022-2027 term”

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown that the quest for personal prestige, historical nostalgia and beliefs in national myths still play a role in shaping international politics. The economy is important, of course, but it is only part of the story in some cases. Indeed, Taiwan may be another victim of the rhetoric of “reunification with the motherland” and Beijing’s need to boost its image with the illusion of an easy gain on the international stage. 

Some speculate that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s blunder in Ukraine will make mainland China more cautious. As Ukraine has taught the Russians, reunification is not always welcome – spoiling the aggressor’s plans to present the world with a fait accompli before reactions and countermeasures take force.

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