Carrie Keller-Lynn
WSJ, Dec. 5, 2024
“… that rebel group’s blend of nationalism and Islamism, which echoes the ideology of Afghanistan’s Taliban and Palestinian Hamas, is regarded by Israel as a dangerous threat, particularly were it to come to power in neighboring Syria.”
The surprising advance by opposition forces in Syria’s civil war poses a conundrum for Israel and the West: Victory by either side presents risks. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is allied with Israel’s enemy, Iran. The resurgence of the war threatens to invigorate that relationship, undermining Israel’s effort to weaken Iran’s web of allied countries and militias throughout the region.
The rebel group now challenging Assad’s rule, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is a U.S.-designated terrorist organization that Israel sees as dangerous to its interests. “The best option for Israel now is a mutual weakening of those forces, not a decisive victory of any of them,” said Harel Chorev, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University. Rebel forces from HTS are holding Aleppo after a lightning offensive to reclaim Syria’s second city late last month, a move that exploited the distraction among Assad’s allies—Iran, Russia and Hezbollah—while they engage in other conflicts.
Forces at work in Syria
In recent years, Israel has preferred “the devil we know” in Assad, over instability and insecurity created by the Islamist rebel groups, said Eyal Zisser, who follows Syria at Tel Aviv University. Indeed, before the rebel offensive, Israel had nurtured hopes that Assad could be lured away from Iran through funding and closer ties to more Western-friendly Gulf states, according to Israeli and Arab officials. The Arab league had readmitted Syria after expelling it from the group for its alliance with Iran and Hezbollah. Assad’s forces were lukewarm in support for Hezbollah in its war with Israel, permitting weapons transfers but not committing troops.… [To read the full article, click here]
