Paulo Agular
Geopolitical Monitor, Dec. 2, 2024
“The collapse of the Assad-Iran-Hezbollah axis in Aleppo could divert resources and attention away from Israel, allowing it to sustain pressure on Gaza and other fronts as needed.”
The swift capture of Aleppo by rebel forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), marks a pivotal turning point in the Syrian civil war. This development not only highlights the fragility of Bashar al-Assad’s regime but also underscores how regional and broader international dynamics are reshaping the conflict. The city, which symbolized the Assad regime’s resurgence after its recapture in 2016, is once again at the center of Syria’s shifting battlefield.
The rebels’ lightning advance reflects deeper geopolitical currents. The Ukraine war has taken a toll on Russia, Assad’s most powerful ally, while Iran and Hezbollah are grappling with the fallout from Israel’s military campaigns. Meanwhile, Turkey has leveraged the situation to expand its influence in northern Syria by utilizing HTS as a proxy force. These overlapping dynamics have given rise to a volatile environment, making Aleppo’s fall a critical turning point.
HTS: From Insurgent Group to Major Player
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has evolved significantly since its origins as an offshoot of al Qaeda in Syria. After splitting from its parent organization and consolidating power in Idlib, HTS has established itself as the dominant force in Syria’s northwestern rebel-held areas. Operating under Turkish protection, the group has transformed Idlib into a de facto Islamist state, with functioning governance structures, military discipline, and strategic autonomy.
This transformation has made HTS a potent actor on Syria’s battlefield. Its leadership has sought to distance itself from the group’s jihadist roots, projecting an image of pragmatism and moderation, at least compared to other Islamist factions. This strategy has helped HTS consolidate power and attract Turkish support, even as it remains classified as a terrorist organization by the United States.
The Aleppo offensive showcases HTS’s growth into a cohesive and capable military force. The group’s fighters demonstrated effective coordination, utilizing modern tactics and weaponry, including drone warfare—a hallmark of contemporary conflicts, starting with the Ukraine war. The rapid pace of the advance, which cut through Assad’s forces in a matter of days, underscores HTS’s enhanced capacity and strategic planning. ….Source