Stefan Hedlund
GIS Reports, June 21, 2022
“With NATO troops present on the ground in Finland, the Russian rear would be dangerously exposed to missile and artillery strikes.”
NATO military planners have long been concerned about Russia’s strategic Kaliningrad exclave. Wedged in between Poland and Lithuania, the chunk of Russian territory with fewer than half a million people has been a fixture in the security architecture of the Baltic Sea region. During the years leading up to the 2022 war in Ukraine, major Russian moves to upgrade its military presence there have triggered concerns. The scenarios hinge on how that war ends and if the regime in Belarus survives.
The heightened posture featured the introduction of Iskander ballistic missiles that may carry nuclear warheads, combined with Russia’s top-of-the-line S-400 air defense systems and Bastion coastal defense systems. Meanwhile, the ground forces were enhanced with new units, including more and better tanks and artillery. And the Baltic Fleet, also based in Russia’s westernmost town of Baltiysk, received both upgrades and additional ships.
As Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine continues to reveal disastrous shortcomings, it is becoming questionable how much of this still matters and if Kaliningrad will play much of a role in the future.
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