Dr. Yechiel M. Leiter
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, No. 662, May 15, 2023
“The Saudis are shrewd and accomplished diplomats, masters at unravelling the mysteries of Middle East intrigue, and there are no better experts at identifying the duplicitous nature of the ayatollah regime.”
Not as It Appears
With the announcement of the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, it appeared that the strategic direction of the Middle East had reversed course.
What seemed to many as a one-way drive along the Abraham Accords freeway toward normalization and peace was suddenly thrust across the political guardrail into oncoming traffic. An embrace of Iran appears, prima facie, to be a shunning of Israel.
However, while that reading is a possible interpretation, it is an unlikely one. Instead, we will argue that the Saudi Arabia of Mohammed bin Salman is committed both to depriving Iran of nuclear weapons and, at the same time, gradually normalizing relations with Israel.
A Nuclear Iran Is Not an Option for Saudi Arabia
The suggestion that Saudi Arabia has embarked on a rapprochement with Iran must contend with the simple question: Do the Saudis suddenly feel less threatened by a nuclear Iran? There is absolutely no reason to assume they do.
Discussion about the Iranian nuclear threat often neglects or avoids the full parameters of the problem. The threat should not be measured only in binary terms of whether they will or won’t use the bomb. That is clearly a concern, as the theory of “mutually assured destruction” (MAD) does not apply to the apocalyptic clerics in Tehran as it did to the politburo in Moscow.
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