Ze’ev Khanin
Wilson Center, Nov. 3, 2022
“Iran wants to “take revenge” on Israel and to “warn” other regional actors from entering into a strategic partnership with Israel by inflicting maximum damage on Azerbaijan as a key ally of the Jewish state.”
From the start, the Russian invasion of Ukraine instantly went beyond the level of subregional clashes to a restructuring of relations among the major world powers—the United States, the EU, Russia, and China. It has also greatly influenced relations among Middle Eastern countries, where it has triggered the strengthening of various geopolitical and strategic alliances.
One alliance in particular that has been bolstered is the Jerusalem-Baku partnership, which in recent years has become a full-fledged military-strategic alliance, with Azerbaijan emerging as Israel’s main energy supplier and source of intelligence about Iran and an important buyer of Israeli technology. As the swirl of unexpected consequences from the Russian-Ukrainian war engulfs region after region, this alliance is being pulled into the vortex and is turning into a de facto actor in the war.
What Is at Stake
From the time it first introduced a Russian military contingent into Syria in 2015 and continuing through the summer of 2022, Moscow has tried to maintain a balance of relations with Israel and Iran—an embodiment of what at the 2013 meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club was identified as the Kremlin’s version of a “balance-of-interests” doctrine, described as “standing in the Middle East on two legs.”
The understanding that was reached between Jerusalem and Moscow in that period included a relative freedom of action for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) against Iranian and pro-Iranian forces in Syria and a suppression of arms supplies to Hezbollah and other Islamist groups, in exchange for Israel’s noninterference in Russian regional interests.
The Russian-Ukrainian war changed that arrangement. Large-scale losses have forced Russia to redeploy to the Ukrainian front some of its forces from Syria and the South Caucasus.
One actor ready to step into the vacuum left by Moscow’s partial withdrawal—with Moscow’s blessing—is Iran. The reported massive Iranian deliveries of drones, missiles, and engines needed to supply the Russian army testify to this change. If this is, in fact, a new trend, then it seems to suggest that Moscow is departing from its balance-of-interests approach in the Middle East and transitioning to a direct military-strategic alliance with Tehran. … SOURCE