Lazar Berman
Times of Israel, May 19, 2024
“Tehran has been displaying weakness for months.”
Iran confirmed Monday morning that President Ebrahim Raisi, as well as Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, were dead following a helicopter crash the previous day.
Though the deaths of two senior Iranian officials are a dramatic development at a time when multiple conflicts are raging in the region, it likely will not affect the course of those fights significantly, with decisions over foreign policy and war under the purview of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
“The president of the Islamic Republic is an implementer, not a decision-maker,” explained Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran. “So the policies of the Islamic Republic, the fundamentals of those policies, will remain the same.”
Raisi “works for the Supreme Leader,” noted Ori Goldberg of Reichman University. “Certainly this guy, because he was elected in the least democratic elections the Islamic Republic ever had.”
At the same time, however, the sudden loss of Iran’s president creates a power vacuum that senior figures will start maneuvering to take advantage of.
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