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Putin’s Strategic Failure and the Risk of Escalation

Nigel Gould-Davies

The Moscow Times, Mar. 1, 2022

“Russia’s aggression – which threatens the wider international order, as well as Western security – enjoys almost no support elsewhere.”

After six days, it is clear that Vladimir Putin’s invasion was based on delusions about Ukraine, the West and Russia. Whatever the outcome on the battlefield, Putin has unleashed forces that weaken his country’s, and his own, position.

Firstly, Putin drastically underestimated Ukraine’s cohesion and will to resist. When he declared war, he called on Ukrainian forces to lay down their arms. Many have died rather than surrender, while many Russian soldiers have done the opposite. Doubling down on his delusion, Putin then called on the Ukrainian military to overthrow President Volodymyr Zelensky. Instead, Ukrainians who have never used a gun are now learning to do so, and to make Molotov cocktails, in defence of their country. Putin is inadvertently completing the work he began in 2014 of uniting Ukrainian society and reinforcing its national identity.

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Nigel Gould-Davies is Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. From 2007-09 he was British Ambassador to Belarus

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