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Prigozhin’s Rebellion, Putin’s Fate, and Russia’s Future- A Conversation with Stephen Kotkin

Foreign Affairs, June 24, 2023

“… look at his pithy and pointed vocabulary, his cadences, his ability to assume the role of tough guy, heart-on-the-sleeve Russian patriot, the truth teller who calls out the opportunists, the morons, and the thieves Putin has appointed.”
 
Stephen Kotkin is a preeminent historian of Russia and the author of an acclaimed three-volume biography of Joseph Stalin (the third volume is forthcoming). Executive Editor Justin Vogt spoke with him earlier today about the dramatic events that have taken place in Russia in the last 24 hours. This conversation has been edited for clarity and length.


Yesterday, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary Wagner organization, launched a rebellion against the Russian military and a direct challenge to Russian President Vladmir Putin’s rule. As of this afternoon, it seems he has at least temporarily halted what appeared to be a march toward Moscow. It remains exceedingly difficult to know where events in Russia are headed. The situation is fluid, it is early, and we don’t want to jump to conclusions. Still: How could this have happened?

Prigozhin is improvising. Maybe he’s stopped the progress toward Moscow, but now what? Back to base camps, he says. OK: but he’s still in charge. You say coup, I say putsch. You say tomato, I say tomahto: let’s call the whole thing off—but just for now.

But he already succeeded in walking into Russia’s southern military headquarters, which is in downtown Rostov, right in the city. Wagner took the headquarters—and they took it not with guns but essentially with smartphones. The technology has made this a different ballgame. A TV production company is running Ukraine—and doing so with tremendous success, in wartime. Prigozhin’s instrument is Telegram. Putin is famously not on the Internet; he apparently doesn’t understand social media. Big mistake.

… [To read the full article, click here]

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