JCFA Iran-Syria Desk
Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, Dec. 8, 2024
“Israel should leverage the regional chaos and confusion to bolster its own interests.”
Syria’s pro-Iranian Alawite minority has fallen. Syria’s ancient capital of Damascus was captured by the most formidable element of the anti-Assad coalition, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The group is led by the Sunni Islamic fundamentalist Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. The opposition rebel coalition is a patchwork of several political, ethnic, and religious groups, including jihadist and pro-West factions.
HTS, which staunchly rejected any negotiations with the Assad government, remains the likely kingmaker in any post-Assad-ruled Syria. Despite Western media re-broadcasts of Jolani’s recent messages “We come in peace,” Julani is suspected of remaining a committed Islamist who has vowed to establish an Islamic Republic in Syria. Historically, he has been an avowed enemy of the West and Israel. Julani was formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda and its spinoff, the al-Nusra Front. Western countries are testing if HTS has moderated. It would be prudent for the West to remember that HTS stands for the liberation of the entire Levant, which, in its contemporary context, includes not only Syria, but Lebanon, Israel (including Judea and Samaria), and Jordan as well.
But will Syria look the same on maps drawn up by the UN in 1946 when the country was declared an independent republic? How much of today’s Syria will remain following its having been picked apart by regional contending powers? Some of these powers are winners, others are losers, in this sudden and surprising turn of events. Turkey, a major supporter of HTS appears the one nation-state most committed and equipped to feed on the Syrian carcass.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declared in a troubling November 26, 2024, speech in Ankara that the West’s progress is built on “blood, tears, massacres, genocide, and exploitation.” Despite his alliance with NATO, Erdoğan’s remarks could have been written by Turkey’s jihadi proxy in Syria. “The West progress…is to the exclusion of the East’s civilization of divine and humane love.” The day will come when Western civilization “collapses with a great clamor, and Eastern civilization will flourish and rise up.… [To read the full article, click here]
