Ata Mohamed Tabriz
Iran International, June 7, 2025
“Without ever testing a bomb, Tehran has altered the regional military balance, particularly with Israel.”
Since the US exited from the 2015 nuclear deal, Tehran has neither raced toward a bomb nor returned to full compliance, maintaining a state of strategic suspension that might best be described as rule at the threshold.
Grown—partly at least—out of necessity, the inaction has with time hardened into a governing doctrine: a form of power rooted less in coherent planning than in the instincts of political survival.
Iran’s rulers have learned to wield ambiguity as leverage, drawing strength not from action but its possibility. That is why they view enrichment as essential.
Maintaining near-weapons level enrichment without actual weaponization—the threshold condition—generates enough uncertainty to make Western powers cautious about Tehran’s next move. It creates a degree of deterrence without escalation.
But that effect appears to be eroding.
Internationally, the tolerance threshold for such maneuvering has narrowed. Domestically, endless uncertainty has undercut the rulers’ legitimacy and drained public resilience—driving growing numbers into apathy or protest. …SOURCE