Shibley Telhami
Brookings, Aug. 2, 2022
“In Democratic politics, the relevant arena on this issue is the primaries, given that Republicans overwhelmingly favor Israel, and even Democratic voters strongly supportive of Israel are unlikely to vote for a Republican candidate in the general election if the Democratic contender’s position on Israel/Palestine does not match their own.”
Previous polls have shown a wide gap between Democratic Party constituents, on the one hand, and the positions of elected congressional Democrats and the Biden administration, on the other, regarding U.S. policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As our new University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll shows, this includes a split on the question of boycotting Israel. But is the public aware of the gap? And does it matter for electoral politics?
In a May 2022 Critical Issues Poll of 2,091 respondents, fielded by Nielsen Scarborough, we asked how respondents perceived the position of the Biden administration on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, compared to their own. Not surprisingly, a little over half (54%) didn’t know. But most Democrats who expressed an opinion said that the administration’s positions leaned toward Israel more than their own, while most Republicans said the Biden administration was leaning more toward Palestine than they were. Overall, 44% of Republicans said the administration was leaning more toward Palestine, and 9% said it was leaning more toward Israel, while 26% of Democrats said the Biden team was leaning more toward Israel, and 3% said it was leaning more toward Palestine.
Similarly, we asked about the positions of the respondents’ elected congressional representatives. Here too, a majority, 56%, said “don’t know,” but a majority of those who expressed opinions said their representatives were leaning toward Israel more than they were personally. Strikingly, about half of Republicans — who have been shown on average to EXPRESS strongly pro-Israel views — with an opinion (23%) said their representative were leaning more toward Israel than they were. Only 15% said the representatives leaned more toward the Palestinians (15%). Among Democrats who had an opinion, 33% said their representatives were leaning toward Israel more than they were, while 3% said their representatives were leaning more toward the Palestinians.
