Behnam Ben Taleblu and Saeed Ghasseminejad
Iran International, Feb. 20, 2022
“American policymakers should be taking stock of the costs and benefits driving Iranian decision-makers this late in the game.”
US officials have deployed an impressive array of metaphors over the past 10 months – from dwindling patience, to a diminishing runway, to a closing window – to describe the Biden administration’s appetite for indirect diplomacy with the Islamic Republic of Iran. As of early 2022, some of these officials conceded that there was only “a handful of weeks” left to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), after which, Washington might have to consider other options. America’s diplomatic partners have recently downgraded that timeline to mere days.
Leaving aside whether the US is serious about the inflection point at hand or if a deal is as close as some diplomats allege, American policymakers should be taking stock of the costs and benefits driving Iranian decision-makers this late in the game. As the famous Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu said, “If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.” Guarding against defeat requires understanding the push and pull pertaining to every option for Iran.
Behnam Ben Taleblu is senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior advisor. They both contribute to FDD’s Iran Program, Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP), and Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). The views and analysis expressed are their own.
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