Yoni Ben Menachem
Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, June 23, 2025
“Khamenei’s rhetoric frames the war against Israel as a victory through religious justice, not necessarily a military triumph.”
This is not Iran’s first war since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and the adoption of the principle of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist), which regards Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the deputy of the Hidden Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, in Shiite belief.
Iran fought against Iraq for eight years and militarily defended Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria during the civil war in 2011. It has successfully built a network of proxies across the Middle East that are subordinate to it. Even Sunni movements like Hamas and Islamic Jihad have come under its wing.
However, Khamenei has failed in his strategy during the current war. He did not activate Hizbullah against Israel on October 7, 2023, claiming that expanding the conflict would drag Iran into a trap.
Security officials say this was a severe strategic error that later led to the loss of his strongest proxy against Israel.
As a result, Khamenei is left only with the Houthis in Yemen. Hizbullah in Lebanon is entangled in conflicts with the Lebanese government, and the Shiite militias in Iraq are wary of the Iraqi government’s response.
Meanwhile, neither Hizbullah nor the Shiite militias dare to strike Israel.
Iran is a large country with over 90 million citizens and is accustomed to prolonged wars.
The Iranian regime combines Shiite Islamic elements with Persian nationalism in its war against Israel.
Khamenei speaks of concepts such as Jihad (holy war) and Shahada (martyrdom) in the battle against Israel. He is conducting the war in line with classical Shiite doctrine while maintaining clear strategic principles:
- Preserving internal power centers during the war to avoid losing control over the Iranian street, especially amid severe economic hardship and growing public pressure.
- Negotiating with the West through “strategic patience” (saber), using the principle of taqiyya – maintaining flexibility and concealing true intentions. In other words, deception.
- Employing religious rhetoric: the sacrifice of fighters through shahada is presented as a sacred phase intended to mask Iran’s military inferiority vis-à-vis Israel.
- Waging war through proxies – the Houthis in Yemen, and possibly later Hizbullah and Shiite militias in Iraq, referred to in Shiism as “men of faith,” forming part of the Resistance Axis. ….SOURCE