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Analysis

Israeli Strike Could Create Deterrence, Embolden Opposition to Tehran

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei casting his vote for 2017 election 3.jpg - Wikimedia Commons
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei casting his vote for 2017 election 3.jpg - Wikimedia Commons

Ron Ben-Yishai
Ynet News, Oct. 26, 2024

“Last night’s attack on Iran represents a strategic and military masterpiece.”
 
The Iranian leadership, spearheaded by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is currently grappling with a complex dilemma over whether and how to respond to last night’s Israeli airstrikes. This challenge arises from the need to balance three critical considerations: Firstly, the regime’s prestige and its capability to defend Iran’s territory have undoubtedly been compromised in the eyes of a significant segment of its population.

Secondly, there are commitments from the Revolutionary Guards and Iranian political figures, such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, to respond forcefully to any Israeli aggression.

The third consideration is purely militaristic. Israel has apparently inflicted severe damage on Iran’s air defense systems, which were supposed to protect the Islamic Republic’s most sensitive military centers from aerial and missile attacks. These systems were intended to safeguard Tehran, the capital, and its surrounding military facilities and factories.

As of early Saturday morning, there is no precise assessment of the damage inflicted on Iran’s air defenses, but it is reasonable to assume that they were significantly impaired in the initial wave of attacks, given that the Iranians barely intercepted any missiles or Israeli fighter jets. … [To read the full article, click here

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