Yoni Ben Menachem
Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, Nov. 28, 2024
“Israel has significantly restored its deterrent power, which had been undermined by Hamas’s surprise attacks of October 7, 2023.”
Israel must adopt a proactive security policy on its northern border, as Iran and Hizbullah are likely to seek opportunities to surprise Israel at a time and place that serves their interests.
The future of the Republic of Lebanon after the cease-fire agreement is uncertain.
Current assessments within Israel’s security establishment suggest that Hizbullah will recover quickly with Iranian support, regaining control over Lebanon and the southern border region with Israel.
Hizbullah’s elite “Radwan” force may have been severely weakened but not completely neutralized. It is expected to rebuild and renew its terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon. In this pause in the war, Hizbullah is poised to emerge as an even more dangerous threat.
Hizbullah could revive its original plan to seize parts of the Galilee in a future confrontation. The hostile intentions of Iran and Hizbullah remain unchanged.
Israel must abandon its long-standing containment policy regarding Hizbullah—a strategy that has defined Israeli governments since the Second Lebanon War. …SOURCE
Yoni Ben Menachem, a veteran Arab affairs and diplomatic commentator for Israel Radio and Television, is a senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Center. He served as Director General and Chief Editor of the Israel Broadcasting Authority.