Zvi Hauser
Israel Hayom, June 19, 2024
“The defense establishment estimates that defeating Hamas, in an optimistic scenario, will take only two or three years.”
After yet another failure in the ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas regarding the release of captives, it’s clear that there is a fundamental disconnect between the two sides’ perceptions of reality and their expectations for the aftermath of any potential deal.
Since the outbreak of hostilities on October 7, Hamas has been aiming for strategic gains, evident in both its military actions and its tough stance on prisoner exchanges. Prior to this date, Hamas typically demanded the release of imprisoned terrorists in exchange for captives; now, the group is seeking far-reaching concessions that go beyond massive prisoner swaps.
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s minimum demand is a guarantee of continued Hamas control over Gaza following any ceasefire, a scenario that would be seen as a resounding victory in the eyes of Palestinians and the Arab world at large. Such an outcome would solidify Hamas’ popular support and potentially pave the way for the group to seize control of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank in a Velvet Revolution.
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