Seth Mandel
Commentary, July 3, 2025
“… we have arrived at a point in the war where Netanyahu may be ready to argue that Israel has defeated Hamas, especially if the cease-fire comes through and hostages come home and there is a symbolic expulsion of Hamas commanders.”
Today Israelis saw the most serious indication yet that the war in Gaza—Israel’s longest—may soon draw to a close: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Kibbutz Nir Oz.
Bibi has made appearances at several of the hard-hit communities victimized by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023. But as most of the headlines about his trip today emphasize, it has taken him 636 days to make his way to Nir Oz. That delay has been criticized heavily by the Israeli public, to say nothing of the residents of the kibbutz. But Netanyahu was always going to have to go to Nir Oz before the end of the war. The current cease-fire negotiations suggest he might believe he was running out of chances.
Why is this cease-fire different from all other cease-fires? One answer is the telegraphing of its perceived significance to President Trump. Netanyahu is coming to Washington next week to meet with the president, and Trump has made it clear he wants to be able to announce the cease-fire during that visit.
Trump has also focused on reassuring Hamas (and Qatar) that he will restrain Israel from renewing hostilities as long as negotiations are taking place for further stages in the cease-fire. That would be typical Trump: back Israel’s show of force in Iran, have the U.S. join in for the final bombing run, then show up his isolationist critics by demonstrating that he has not pulled the U.S. into a war with Iran and that the U.S. still calls the shots abroad.
Trump’s success in dictating recent events—even going so far as to tell Netanyahu to order his Air Force pilots to turn their planes around mid-mission when he tired of the fighting with Iran—seems to have earned Hamas’s confidence as well. The Saudi outlet Asharq reported today that Hamas is warming to the emerging deal and specifically to Trump’s guarantees. The president seems to have convinced leaders in Qatar and their Hamas clients that once this cease-fire is in effect, the decision to restart the war will have to go through him. ….SOURCE