Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenboge, Ambassador Hesham Youssef et al
United States Institute of Peace, Sept. 28, 2023
“… there are major challenges to consummating such a deal between a triangle of actors whose interests don’t neatly align and, in key areas, starkly diverge.”
In recent months, a drumbeat has built around the U.S. effort to negotiate a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The deal would be a tectonic shift in Middle East geopolitics, but also carries major implications for other actors beyond the three negotiating parties. Israel would, of course, benefit from normalized relations with the Saudis — long seen as the “holy grail” of potential normalization agreements for the country. The Saudis, in turn, would see their interests advanced through strengthened U.S partnership in key areas. But this deal could also have serious implications for the future of the Palestinian national movement and, further afield, for the role of China in the Middle East.
The speculation that the agreement is around the corner received an adrenaline shot last week as both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS) indicated that progress had been made. But major obstacles remain in a deal that aims to address shared interests while requiring each of the major parties to make compromises that could meet strong domestic headwinds.
USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, Hesham Youssef, Robert Barron and Adam Gallagher explain what this deal would look like, the obstacles to achieving it, how it compares to the Abraham Accords and how China factors into the U.S. pursuit of this agreement.
What do we know about the respective interests, potential contours of and roadblocks to a Saudi-Israel normalization agreement?
… [To read the full article, click here]
