Seth J. Frantzman
Jerusalem Post, July 4, 2023
“Iran also wants to move slowly as it usually does in the region. This means a combination of Iran’s octopus-like strategy across the region, with a kind of anaconda-like attempt to surround Israel with threats”
Iran has been trying to empower Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the West Bank to create more tensions with Israel closer to Jerusalem and benefit Tehran in the region via diplomatic outreach to various countries.
In the last year, it has increasingly sought to provide terror organizations in the West Bank with weapons and it hopes that the PIJ group could carve out a zone of control that would threaten Israel. The activities of Iran-backed groups, such as PIJ and Hamas benefit Iran because it gives Tehran a way to increase its “unity” of fronts against Israel.
This means that it can add Jenin to other areas, such as Gaza, Southern Lebanon and the Golan border area where Iran has activities and backs threats. In Tehran’s long-term view, it may believe it can create conditions in Jenin similar to what it did in southern Lebanon and then Gaza in the 1990s and early 2000s. For now Tehran and Hezbollah appear to be monitoring the situation.
Unifying the fronts, a concept Iran has mentioned in the last months, is one way Iran benefits. This means bringing together threats from Hamas, Hezbollah, PIJ, and others in various places. However, if its tentacles in the West Bank are curtailed then it could lose one of those fronts. However Iran likely calculates that the benefit and risk is more than the reward.
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