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Danny Citrinowicz
INSS Insight No. 1949, Feb. 19, 2025
“One of the main sources of confusion within the Iranian leadership may be its struggle to understand Trump’s policy toward Iran.”
In recent weeks, two opposing developments have occurred in Iran, reflecting the acute dilemma of Tehran’s leadership over the future of its nuclear program. On the one hand, statements from conservative figures in the country suggest that Iran’s leadership is taking significant steps toward a potential shift in its nuclear strategy. According to a report in the New York Times, Iranian scientists have explored various options for rapidly acquiring a military nuclear capability should Iran’s leadership make such a decision. On the other hand, voices among Tehran’s leadership, particularly those identified with the “moderate” camp, are increasingly calling for concessions in the nuclear program as part of negotiations with the Trump administration. The administration has already stated its preference for an agreement over an Israeli military attack, thus paving the way for a potential deal that could lift sanctions and ease the economic burden on the Iranian people.
This debate is unfolding against the backdrop of Iran’s worsening economic crisis—one that began before President Trump took office and reinstated the “maximum pressure” campaign—and the unprecedented energy crisis that has struck the country. In addition, Iran faces a serious security challenge due to the collapse of the so-called “Axis of Resistance” network it had built as a result of the war with Israel and the severe blow caused by Israel’s attack on Iran’s missile production and air defense systems on October 26, 2024.
It appears that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei has yet to decide which stance to adopt, and his public statements reflect this dilemma. While he has not ruled out negotiations with the United States, he has repeatedly expressed skepticism about their effectiveness and, most importantly, warned against making concessions to the US administration. In any case, it is clear that Khamenei strongly opposes direct engagement with those responsible for the assassination of his protégé, Qasem Soleimani, making it highly doubtful that he would agree to make major concessions in negotiations to meet international demands. ...SOURCE