J.E. Dyer
The Optimistic Conservative, Jan. 17, 2024
“The big information point — if validated in the upcoming days — is where the Houthi assets are being moved.”
… To briefly introduce the topic, the political condition of Yemen – reduced as it often is to warring factions, with no central government in control – is a key element affecting the stability of the whole region. The conditions of today, with the Houthis, backed by Iran, attacking third parties, can be exploited well beyond the level at which Tehran’s regime is currently exploiting them.
That is the main danger of the current situation. It lies behind the threat to shipping, as it lay for several years behind the threat of Houthi missiles and drones to Saudi Arabia. As I pointed out in an email excerpted on Monday, the “Yemen” problem needs to be addressed by U.S. and regional leadership with negotiated pacification and unification, at least long enough to neutralize it in the Hamas-Israel crisis.
Though that seems like a towering task and may not strike most readers as the immediate necessity, it will turn out to be indispensable. It has to be faced. Merely playing defense off the coast of Yemen, on an indefinite basis, is a situation that can’t be held in stasis. It will deteriorate.
And the Iran-Houthi cartel is now making the move that clearly signals that point. The move is, in one stroke, putting the factional disposition of Yemen, and the future of rule and stability in Yemen, in play. While doing so, it’s angling to force a decision on the powers of the West: get involved in the factional confrontation, or lose the Bab-el-Mandeb chokepoint to Iran.