Sergey Radchenko
The Spectator, June 24, 2023
“Russia is in a state of a deep crisis, unlike anything it has experienced since 1991.”
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, has taken control of the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, the headquarters of the Southern Miliary District, in the most serious challenge to Putin’s leadership to date. Prigozhin says that he has 25,000 troops available and is willing to march on Moscow.
Back on May 9, when Prigozhin’s challenge to Vladimir Putin first became evident, I argued in The Spectator against the idea that Putin was “in charge” of the situation. That analysis was based on the sense — confirmed since then — that Prigozhin’s complaints about Wagner ammunition and attacks on a certain “happy grandpa” running the war effort seriously undermined Putin’s authority.
This isn’t meant to happen in Putin’s system. Putin’s system allows for minions to attack each other but never undermine the vertical structure. Prigozhin crossed that line. And Putin had to respond. But Putin’s distant response to that challenge in May — he continued to act as if nothing was happening, and only recently seemed to throw his lot with the Ministry of Defense endorsing the idea that Wagner should be subordinated to it — sent a signal right down the system.
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