Bret Stephens
NY Times, Sept 24, 2024
“… the re-establishment of the Israeli-controlled security zone in southern Lebanon that existed from 1985 to 2000 might, for all the long-term problems it presents, be the least-bad alternative.”
In 2006 Hezbollah launched a guerrilla raid into Israel. It led to a 34-day war that devastated Lebanon, traumatized Israel, and concluded with a U.N. resolution that was supposed to disarm the terrorist militia and keep its forces far from the border. The resolution did neither.
Instead, a combination of international wishful thinking and the willfulness of Hezbollah’s patrons in Tehran have brought us to where we are now — the cusp of a conflict that could dwarf the scale of fighting in Gaza. Can a full-blown war be avoided? Hard to say. Can the lessons of 2006 lead to a better outcome this time? That’s the important question.
First lesson: Tactical brilliance is not a substitute for sound strategy. In 2006, the Israeli Air Force, operating on excellent intelligence, was able to knock out many of Hezbollah’s longer-range rockets — often hidden in homes — by the second night of the war. The strike surely helped spare scores, if not hundreds, of Israeli lives.
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