Irwin J. Mansdorf
Jerusalem Post, Sept. 23, 2024
“… unlike Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah faces real opposition within Lebanon – despite claiming to be Lebanese patriots. While that cover has so far allowed it to carry out the wishes and strategy of its Iranian masters, it is nevertheless the Lebanese people who may becomes Hezbollah’s Achilles heel enabling its “psyching out.” Alienating the non-Shiite population of Lebanon is not a Hezbollah interest.”
War can sometimes be like a boxing match. “Psyching out” your opponent goes a long way toward winning. Just ask anyone who followed the career of perhaps the greatest boxer of all, Muhammad Ali. From pre-fight bravado to the in-fight “rope-a-dope,” Ali, certainly a masterful physical fighter, used his psychological skills to wear down his opponents in a way that made his punches more powerful.
In the boxing match between Israel and Hezbollah that has been going on, round after round, for the last 11 months, neither side has yet set up its opponent for the knockout punch.
While it seems that Hezbollah is about to be knocked out, its Islamist ideology, proscribing surrender, still presents a barrier to be penetrated.
The almost-hard-to-believe recent pager caper and subsequent walkie-talkie strike have the potential to breach that barrier. Until now, the tit-for-tat exchange of punches has come from both sides, but there has been no single punch that has left the other teetering and dizzy, ripe to receive a knockout punch that will end the match.
There is a psychological asymmetry in fighting an Islamist opponent, which works against the stronger party. If Hezbollah survives, it can claim victory. And, just as for Hamas – its ideological twin in Gaza, – sacrificing the lives of its people does not deter Hezbollah from continuing the fight.
So how will psychological pressure work against those whose value system is such that conventional losses are computed on a scale different from what Western culture is used to?
No doubt, Hezbollah is now insecure, anxious, and vulnerable, with even its corner team, or what’s left of it, questioning how to proceed. Any reaction it has will likely stem from unsettled panic rather than strategic calm….SOURCE