Tamir Hayman
INSS, May 7, 2024
“The operation in Rafah has only just begun, and it’s not advisable to declare its scope. This is a developing operation, and it’s forbidden to provide the enemy with certainty.”
I would like to put in order what seems to be contradictory: an unnecessary delay and frankly, for the first time in a month, an Israeli initiative that might lead us to the end of the war.
The hostage deal
Hamas has apparently agreed to the offer. In practice, this is a fundamentally different proposal than the one Israel agreed to. There are two main points of contention: The end of the war and the identity of the prisoners who had been sentenced to life but who will be released as part of the deal. On the first issue, Israel finds the mediators’ proposal acceptable because the phrase “ceasing the war” is not mentioned. The phrase in the proposal “cessation of activity” is vague, and it allows flexibility for renewing the war in the future, should Israel choose. The catch is in the second issue, which doesn’t allow Israel to accept the deal. Israel will waive the right of veto on the decision about the Palestinian prisoners to be released—this is a fundamental matter.
From the publication of the outline of the deal, in the first stage of the deal, Israel will release 50 prisoners—of which 30 have been sentenced to life—in exchange for the release of each kidnapped Israeli female soldier. That is, in total, at the end of the first stage, Israel will release 150 prisoners that were sentenced to life, according to Hamas’s demand, while Israel isn’t allowed to interfere in this. … [To read the full article, click here]